An Empirical Research On The Relationship Between Fiscal Agriculture Expenditure And Agriculture Economic Growth In Anhui Province

Agriculture has certain attribute of public goods. Compared to other industries, agriculture has natural inferiority, and it is enslaved to many factors, such as the natural and the market environment. So agriculture cannot survive without protect and support of the government. By fiscal expenditure to protect and support agriculture is the common way in the world. Also it is the most direct and important way of China. And Fiscal agriculture expenditure has become the important sources of funds in agricultural production and development. Fiscal agriculture expenditure has reached 1334955 million yuan of China in 2013, nearly 10 times more than in 2000, and its average annual growth rate is 20.21%. With the expansion of fiscal agriculture expenditure, agricultural output has been expanded as well. Agricultural output has reached 9699527 million yuan of China in 2013, nearly 3 times more than in 2000, and its average annual growth rate is 10.51%. There is a vital significance of further study in the relationship between fiscal agriculture expenditure and agricultural output.As a big agricultural province, in recent years, the scale of fiscal agriculture expenditure is enlarging continuously in Anhui province. But there are still some problems, such as unstable growth, lack of relative scale and regional differences. By selecting the relevant data of 1982-2013 in fiscal agriculture expenditure of Anhui province as a sample, using VAR models, this paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal agriculture expenditure and agricultural output in Anhui province by empirical method. The cointegration test shows that there is a long-term stable and balanced relationship between fiscal agriculture expenditure and agricultural output in Anhui province. The impulse response analysis shows that the fiscal agriculture expenditure has a positive response to agricultural output of fiscal agriculture expenditure The variance decomposition shows that fiscal agriculture expenditure has an important contribution for agricultural output in Anhui province. On the basis of knowing the output elastic coefficient of 20.34%, the article calculates the marginal output of fiscal agriculture expenditure for each year, and found that the marginal output was all greater than 1. That means it has not reached the optimal size of fiscal agriculture expenditure in Anhui province. Finally, combining with the research conclusion and actual situation of Anhui province, the article put forward some policy suggestions, such as increasing the scale of fiscal agriculture expenditure, strengthening the supervision and management mechanism of fiscal agriculture funds, establishing the diversified financing mechanism and distributing the fiscal agriculture funds according to local conditions, in order to provide certain reference for the governments to make agriculture finance policy in Anhui province.