| The structure of one country’s export commodities do not just reflect its inner industrial structure,but also reflects the ways,the level and the degree that the country participate in international division of labor.In recently years,facing the challenge of raising domestic labor costs,increasing pressure of environmental protection,shortage of inner natural resources and the intensive competition pressure from emerging market countries in the international market.Accelerating the transformation of economic development and optimizing the structure of export commodities has gradually became the consensus of domestic academia and the centers of the government’s economic works.The RMB exchange rate,as an important economic lever and policy tool for China to participate in international economic and trade activities, is an important factor that affects China’s export commodity structure’s optimization and upgrading.Hence,study on the influence of the RMB exchange rate on China’s export commodity structure is always an important subject for the economic circle and has also attached great attention from social and China’s government.Since reform and opening-up,the linkage between the RMB Exchange Rate and China’s export commodities’ structure of manufactured goods has been continuously strengthened. From 1978 to 2014,with the adjustments of the exchange rate system of RMB,the RMB exchange rate had also changed a lot. But as a whole, changes in the RMB real effective exchange rate, with 1994 as the node,can be divided into two stages during this period.Before 1994,the real effective exchange rate of RMB had basically maintained the trend of devaluation. With the stimulus of the devaluation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the advantage of China’s abundant human resources had continued to appear.While of China’s manufactured goods exports, labor-intensive products has accordingly occupied and maintained the dominant position during this period. In 1994, the RMB exchange rate system had shifted from two-track to single exchange rate regime which pegging to the dollar and progressively realized the current account convertibility. Thereafter, with the RMB exchange rate became stable and the rapid development of China’s foreign trade,its structure of export industrial products had also been optimized. With the structure of export industrial products had realized the transformation from being dominated by labor-intensive products to capital and technology-intensive products. Thus, the real effective exchange rate of RMB changes has an important influence on China’s manufactured goods export commodity structure.However, when we saw the real effective exchange rate of RMB movements have a great influence on promoting the optimization and upgrading of China’s manufactured goods exports, we should also be noted exactly how exchange rate movements affect the export commodity structure of industrial products, how to use the exchange rate to further promote the optimization and upgrading of the export commodity structure of industrial products, which has became an important issues.To solve this problem,this paper began with the movements of real effective exchange rate of RMB and the export commodities’ structure changes of industrial products since the reform and opening-up.Proceed by calculating the relative structure of different kinds of export goods based on the factor intensive and analysis the relationship between the relative structure and the real effective exchange rate of RMB,then further analysis this relationship by using economic model. At last, on the basis of summarizing the full text,this paper had given some advice on how to use the exchange rate changes to promote the optimization of export commodity structure.The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly, statements of the background and significance of this paper’s study. In this sector,this paper had pointed out that the real effective exchange rate of RMB had an great influence on the structure of China’s manufactured goods export.Using the chance of the appreciation of real effective exchange rate of RMB to promote China’s industrial manufactured goods export commodity composition is of great importance.And in this sector,this paper had also summarized and analyzed the previous studies in the views of export commodity composition and the impact of exchange rate changes on export commodity composition. It had also described the research methods, this article’s structure, and innovations and inadequate parts of this paper.Secondly, this paper analyzed how exchange rate changes can affect economies’ export commodity composition based on the theory of elasticity approach,the variation of different kinds of product’s cost constitutes,which made theoretical groundwork for the flowing empirical analysis.Thirdly, review and analysis of the changes of the RMB exchange rate and the export commodities’composition of China’s manufactured goods since the reform and opening-up. After this,a statistically analysis of the relationship between the two was made. On the whole, RMB exchange rate changes generally show negative impact on different factor intensive export goods, but the impact of exchange rate movements on capital and technology-intensive products is relatively weaker than labor-intensive products. Therefore, changes in exchange rates in the long run can promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial products’export commodity structure.Fourthly, through the establishment of econometric models, this paper had analyzed the long run and the short run impact of exchange rate changes on the export commodity composition of manufactured goods. Effects of exchange rate changes on commodity composition in the long term and short term do have a significant difference. In the long run,the appreciation of RMB will promote the optimization and adjustment of the export commodity composition, while in the short run,it will hinder the optimization of the export commodity composition,which suggests that exchange rate changes in promoting the optimization and upgrading of the export commodity composition is a long-term process.Finally, on the conclusion of this article, this paper had putted forward some policy recommendations to take full use of exchange rate movements on further promoting export commodity composition of manufactured goods, such as actively promoting industrial restructuring, diversifying export markets, improving foreign exchange risk management system and so on. |
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