The Impact Of Rmb Real Effective Exchange Rate On The Commodity Of China-asean Import And Export

Exchange rate is the embodiment of monetary value,which determines the value of output or commodity price and plays an important role in the profit and welfare of market participants.At present,the two-way fluctuation pattern of RMB exchange rate continues,and the fluctuation of exchange rate will become more unpredictable,which increases the difficulty for traders to make profits in the international market,and makes traders uncertain about the expected earnings.Therefore,the fluctuation of exchange rate leads to the existence of exchange rate risks.The establishment of the China-ASEAN free trade area(CAFTA)and the promotion of the "One Belt And One Road" initiative have boosted the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN countries.China-ASEAN trade scale expanding and surplus also continues to expand,China and ASEAN traders in the face of the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,the expected profits could not be accurate judgment,then rely on long-term or options can effectively avoid and locking the exchange rate risk,and different traders operating may be different goods,in the face of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations will have the same response to the decision.This paper sorts out and summarizes relevant theories on the relationship between exchange rate and trade,sorts out three theories on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade,further classifies relevant literature on the positive and negative effects of exchange rate fluctuations on import and export trade,and finds that there is no consistent conclusion on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade.Therefore,in the trade between China and ASEAN,classified commodities are used as the research object to investigate the impact of real effective exchange rate on commodities.The empirical analysis of this paper chooses 2005 to 2017,the bilateral commodity classification of the quarterly data,using the standard deviation method to measure the exchange rate volatility,the autoregressive distributed lag model considering the two kinds of fluctuation of exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuations,the margin test to determine the long-term equilibrium relationship between import and export demand equation,join the error correction model to analyze the short-term dynamic relationship between variables.The empirical analysis shows that,firstly,the change of RMB real effective exchange rate has a greater impact on China's exports to ASEAN than on ASEAN 's imports in the long run,and China's trade surplus with ASEAN continues to expand under the circumstance of RMB appreciation,which may be the result of a combination of reasons.Second,RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuations have different pass-through effects on bilateral commodity trade between China and ASEAN in the short term.The long-term impact of exchange rate fluctuations cannot be fully transmitted to the short term,and the sensitivity of most commodities to exchange rate fluctuations is significantly negative.Third,real income levels at home and abroad that reflect real purchasing power have a positive impact on bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.Finally based on the above analysis results,combining with the current pattern of RMB two-way fluctuation condition,integrated with the ASEAN trade development present situation in our country,put forward to perfect the exchange rate mechanism,optimization of China's export structure,strengthen the bilateral financial cooperation,to promote cross-border trade settlement and avoid exchange rate risk measures to promote the future development of trade between China and ASEAN.