Empirical Research On The Relationship Between Economic Fluctuation And Economic Growth Under Opening-Up Policy

In the process of the economy development, the relationship between economic long-term growth and short-term economic fluctuation has always been an important practical question and research object. The world economy has more and more increasingly influenced our economic reform and open policy, especially after the global financial crisis caused by the US mortgage crisis. The world economic fluctuation become more and more severe, and our country also entered the China’s New Normal. How to deal with the relationship between the long-term economic development and the short-term economic fluctuation has aroused more and more scholars’attention.This article aims to research the mutual influence between the long-term economic development and short-term economic fluctuation, and the opening-up policy how to influence these relationships. First of all, on the basis of previous research articles and empirical study I explore the measure methods of economic growth and fluctuation. Secondly, I choose measure indicators as economic fluctuation, economic growth and degree of openness, analyze these indicators’change trend from 1978 to 2013 and make statistical description. Finally, this paper analyzes the short-term economic fluctuation how to affect the long-term economic growth, and the degree of openness how to affect these relationships through using the panel data of 31 provinces and GMM estimation method. From different angles between the measure method of economic fluctuation and different regions, I conduct robust test for the results.Empirical results show that:(1) The country’s economic fluctuation relatively stable due to 1996, so the overall trend has been gradually downward because of economic soft landing. (2) The increase in degree of openness decreased the economic fluctuation, the influence on economic growth is not significant before 1996, but has a positive effect after 1996. Further, our economic fluctuation has different impact on economic growth, has a positive before 19996 and negative effect after 1996. (3) As the change of degree of openness, the change of influence between economic fluctuation and growth is nonlinear. When the degree of openness exceeds a certain critical value, the impact of economic fluctuation on economic growth is from negative to positive effect. (4) I conducted a robust test through using different measure methods of economic fluctuation and different areas data, the conclusions is the same. According to the conclusions, the government should rational view of economic fluctuation, recognize of the fact that under opening to the outside world, the positive impact of economic fluctuations on economic growth, guide export trade reasonably, strengthen the improvement of import trade, narrow the development gap among different regions and promote the stable growth of economy.