The Empirical Study Of Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation In Hangzhou

The real estate occupies an important position in the national economy. In recent years, the real estate develop by a widespread attention, many areas formed their own unique real estate phenomenon. Regional is an essential attribute for the real estate, So the corresponding period of rapid thermotaxis is also an important part of the real estate economy. National real estate cycle study ignores a lot of blind spots caused by regional, conclusions of the study can not be applied to every area. Economists have focused its attention from the eyes of the national real estate cycle research to the study of regional real estate cycle. As the political center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou has a high level of openness, good market-oriented government policies and a series of soil formation form a kind of "Hangzhou phenomenon."Based on the current economic sphere concerned with the housing market cycle research, by means of the old city of Hangzhou in 1990- 2013 Real Estate ten data related indicators, respectively, with a single index method, the diffusion index and three synthetic index method detailed in Hangzhou real estate cycle fluctuation were studied. In the single indicator method, We choose cross index as an indicator index. It demonstrates the existence of objectivity Hangzhou real estate cycle. The diffusion index and composite index method in the cycle have their own advantages. In this paper, by comparing pattern recognition using a diffusion index peaks and troughs, and using analytical methods in economics filtering cycle fluctuations will be separated from the index fluctuations. The composite index for the cycle length more accurately grasp the magnitude of the synthetic index points. From the two index method will be a comprehensive analysis of Hangzhou from 1990. This prieod is divided into three parts, the early 1990 s to maintain calm in the ups and downs of a decade, and then bring a new round of financial crisis the real estate bubble, as the real estate bubble burst in Hangzhou is about to enter a new period of calm, the last light of the conclusions made a short-term forecast of the real estate in Hangzhou.