The Empirical Study On Real Estate Cyclical Fluctuations Of Liaoning Province

At present, the real estate industry is in the macro-background of international, industrial, marketization, information and urbanization. As a pillar industry of national economy, real estate has a strong correlation with many other industries. However, just like the cyclical fluctuations of the macro-economy operation process, there are cyclical fluctuations during the development of the real estate industry. Therefore, it is not only has theoretical significance, but also has more guidance in practice.As known that Liaoning province is one of the northeast old industrial base, and opening and development of Liaoning coastal economic zone has risen as a national strategy in July 2009, Liaoning province is trying to create an opening platform in northeast China. The economic development of Liaoning province is in more important strategic station of the country's overall development, due to the construction of infrastructure facilities, the establishment of clusters of industry and service, and urbanization. Therefore, it is practical significance to address the phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations, analyze the factors that determine cyclical fluctuations scientifically, and propose countermeasures to keep away fluctuations and venture, for the healthy and stable development of Liaoning's real estate industry, for the smooth and fast development of Liaoning's economic and further for the construction of a harmony society.Firstly, this paper introduces the research results of the domestic and international real estate cycle fluctuations and related theories, detailed describes the economic cycle theories and the existing concept of cyclical fluctuations of real estate industry, on this basis, combined with my own understanding of the real estate cycle, I redefined the concept of cyclical fluctuations of real estate. And then, it carries on empirical study of Liaoning province real estate industry, selects the principal component index of the synthesis method through comparative study of the testing methods of the four major categories cycle fluctuations, and establishes the index system by selecting 14 indicators. Finally, to choose the Liaoning housing market to represent the real estate market, to analyze the data applying the SPSS 16.0 analysis software, and get the cycle fluctuation curve of the Liaoning real estate.The empirical results show that, there was an obvious cycle fluctuation of the real estate in Liaoning Province between 1994 and 2008. Specifically, it can be divided into three cycles,1995-2000,2001-2003,2004-present. Such fluctuations are affected by many factors, which are analyzed by synthesizing the empirical analysis results and the index fluctuation, and are divided into core factor, capital factor and macro factor. Finally, we consider the cycle fluctuation of Liaoning real estate be mainly influenced by fluctuations procurability.In this paper, the ultimate aim of this research is to propose a support for making national macro-policy, and to provide conditions for making anti-cycle policies which ensure healthy and orderly development of the real estate industry and regional economy. However, due to the restrictions of indicators and statistical analysis methods selection, there are insufficient in data mining and causes analysis, which need further research.