The Research On Warning And Monitoring Of Industrial Chain Risk At BC Bank Hebei Branch

Since the reform and opening-up, profound changes have taken place in the financial sector of our country, one of which was the Agricultural Bank of China’s listing in the Shanghai Stock market in 2009 that was a milestone of the transformation of our country’s commercial banks from administrative-sheltered units to self-sustaining enterprises. The Banking industry’s boom, whose peak had reached 4 billion average daily profit, followed by the economic downturn with a burst of non-performing loans and provisions for diminution of assets value. In spite of the depressing economy, commercial banks of our country have not learnt corresponding management concept, management methods, monitoring and warming technics to counter with the severe situation. BC Bank is not an exception, which has to face to the same trouble and opportunity in such a downturn. On the one hand, BC bank needs to take great efforts to develop business for sustaining the market position. On the other hand, because of the hysteretic and static risk managing methods, BC bank cannot handle the chain-risk and local system-risk.This paper intends to identify risk conduction path and delivering time between different industries, offering method of monitoring for the Bank. The purpose of this paper is to give an effective recommendations and designs in the risk monitoring of the industrial chains for BC Bank Hebei Branch. This paper is divided into seven chapters: Chapter one is an introduction, which consists of the background, subject, and the purpose of the research. Chapter two briefly explains the basic principle, characteristics, and the development status of Credit risk monitoring. Chapter three introduced the internal and external factors for BC Bank Hebei Branch to carry out the risk management. To identify that overcapacity industries are the main incentives of the collapse for the Bank. Chapter four explain how risks delivering between different industries. Chapter five made primary design of industrial chain risk warning system. Chapter six used the example of "steel—shipbuilding—shipping" to explain how risks delivering between different industries. The paper summarized the thesis in the last chapter.By analysis, this paper reaches the following conclusions. In the process of development, BC bank has to face to the severe situation of assets diminution as well as the problems caused by hysteretic and static methods in risk management. The risk assets exposure of BC bank shows that the main factors, which have much influence on the assets quality, are the industrial chain risks brought about by the overcapacity of the economy. This paper tries to demonstrate the importance of industrial chain risk management by mathematical deduction and a specific example "steel—shipbuilding— shipping" chain. Therefore, BC bank Hebei Branch ought to recognize a variety of chains by analyzing the credits dates and select key indicators of chain risks to design an dynamic, forward-looking and elaborate risk management system, which will help BC bank avoid the blindness of industrial chain, become foresight on identifying chain risks and make preparation for preserving assets.