Study On The Early Warning Of Macro - Economic Climate Monitoring In Guizhou Province

According to the theory of economic growth,such as Solow model, Diamond model and endogenous growth theory, Economic development slow growth in the long term upward trend is presented.However, according to the wave theory of economic cycles, Economic development in the short term is to present the cycle changes, it has cyclical characteristics, also,it has four states like Economic boom prosperity, recession, depression, recovery. China economic development in a " Three superimposed " stage.Affected by the international and domestic economic environment changes, it has increased risk of various constraints, china has lowered its economic growth expectations, Gradual slowdown of economic growth, especially in the new normal. Guizhou province pillar industries such as coal industry overcapacity and other factors influence. Its economic growth rate showed a downward trend line. How to make Guizhou Province continued to maintain strong economic growth, it need for macroeconomic trends make predictions, make the short-term macroeconomic development boom do monitoring and early warning.First, the content of this paper is to build prosperity index system of Guizhou Province. Reference the CEMAC(China Economic Monitoring & Analysis Center) selected climate indicator and the statistics of Guizhou Province monthly economic indicators,mainly based on economic necessity and sufficiency of statistical principles, The reaction can be completely screened out business cycle fluctuations in Guizhou Province 18 climate indicators. In the case of the missing observations index case, use the reasonable approach for missing data interpolation sequence. Use the monthly economic indicators as GDP this cycle benchmarks. X12 seasonal adjustment method used to remove the 18 indicators of the time series of seasonal factors, Excluding trends using HP filter components, Use two methods,like Time difference analysis and gray relation application, correlation index group will be divided into leading and lagging indicators synchronous.Second, construction Guizhou Province macroeconomic climate monitoring index. Seeking to use factor analysis(FACTOR) each index weights, Then fabricated composite index diffusion index DI and CI, then get the economy index chart, to be careful analysis of trends in the economic boom of Guizhou Province, combin the selected indicators to analysis the Guizhou Province economic cycles situation, the peak of the economic cycle time of occurrence of each round, the economic cycle stage of Guizhou Province,.It economic is in rapid decline until after the strike is still experiencing a gentle rise of rise of the economic boom of prosperity and decline of the trough.Finally, Guizhou province macroeconomic climate monitoring and early warning analysis. Select to quickly and sensitively react Guizhou economic sentiment trends five economic indicators from the numerous indicators, to build Guizhou Province prosperity index. Principal component analysis of the heavy weight of each index method to determine when to establish a comprehensive index, Application of mathematical statistical method to determine the critical points of the index signal transition, warning size Were divided according to the warning index,then draw the economic sentiment index signal. In order to correctly judge the Guizhou Province current macroeconomic climate trends, The results show that the economy is slow growth in Guizhou Province systolic, Economic growth rate as before, Economic boom has coldening trend. Combined with gray wave predictions, to analysis the short-term economic, to enable the government to develop sound economic policies against the status quo of economic operation,to given the relevant policy recommendations.