Research On Financial Early-warning Of Enterprises

The financial risk which goes throughout the entire business activities could lead to an enterprise’s financial crisis. So it’s important to paying attention to this kind of risk. The resource of financial risk is wide, such as financial structure, the methods of financing and operating strategy. Moreover, it is also influenced by the factors of policy and economic environment. And an enterprise can’t avoid the financial risk.Early warning of financial risk is an important control method, financial indexes and nonfinancial indexes can recognize and judge the risk. The financial indexes take an advantage of intuitive nature and availability. And it is widely used in the system of early-warning. Moreover, it is the fundamental data of the early-warning models. We can recognize and predict the risk by analyzing the number, change and trend of the financial indexes.This essay make a deep and specific understanding of the concept, management and predict of financial risk. It raise the hypothesis and design a system of financial indexes from Debt paying ability, operation ability, profit ability, growth ability and innovation ability. We choose 30 listed companies which has been taken special treatment in 2004 and 30 normal companies, and the data come across 2009-2013, and test the hypothesis by using principal component analysis and logical analysis. We construct the model for each year, and teat its ability of prediction. Meanwhile, the research proves that the financial can be predicted, and the ability and duration of different indexes are different.