The Transformation Of Economic Growth Mode In The Energy Price Fluctuations Macroeconomic Risks

Inexhaustible energy is well known as a driving force of social and economic development, in the 21st century, people’s dependence on energy becomes deepening. As a non-renewable energy resources, it’s kind of Investment in productive activities as a vital element and almost closely linked with the economy’s production activities for all products. However, as the economy continues to develop, the rapid growth in demand for energy results in that scarcity and non-renewable energy resources may limit the constant growth of energy supply. The widening gap between supply and demand of energy leading to energy price fluctuations which impacts on China’s macro economy increasingly. With the continuous economic and social development, energy issue has become a bottleneck for economic development. Therefore,exploring the impact of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic for further analysis of the transmission mechanism of energy price volatility and macroeconomic risk assessment of energy price fluctuations is practical significant for China’s economic growth mode transformation of policy options to provide theoretical reference and guidance. This is also for achieving sustainable development and continuing to maintain high growth momentum of reform since 30 years’ opening up to make certain exploration.In this paper,we inquiry deep on the impact of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic with the method of integrating theory with practice. First, accessed to a lot of data and expounded China’s current energy situation with the methods of statistical and economics. We attempted to present the basic situation of China on energy issues simple sort and figured out the link between the economy and energy consumption combined with the calendar years’ GDP data. Then introduced into the concept of the process of the transformation of economic growth mode macroeconomic risk to show the logical order in theoretical aspects which means that transformation of economic growth could lead to energy price volatility which led to macroeconomic risks. Secondly, with the use of knowledge of macroeconomics, searched the impact of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic from the perspective of total supply and total demand. Then further analyzed the conduction path of the impact of energy prices on macroeconomic from the perspective of different economic variables and theoretically discussed and summarizedthe the complex pathways of energy price shocks of. Third,from the perspective of the production chain,the energy price shock as an exogenous variable added to the economic model,comparatively analyized before and after the change in energy price volatility under equilibrium state of economic production and made a preliminary argumentation about the impact of energy price fluctuations on the macroeconomic. Fourth, start the empirical analysis with the use of conduction matrix of industry risk from a static point of view for industry risk of energy price fluctuations. According to the 2007 input-output table of direct consumption coefficient data concluded that the risk of fluctuations in energy prices in the industry will pass between the industry and sensitivities to different sectors of price fluctuations were different. Finally, using stata software to analyze the dynamic effects of energy price volatility. First, from 2003 to 2013 of WTI crude oil prices, real GDP, consumer price index (CPI) and M2 money supply data unit root test to determine stationary time series. Then use the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between co-integration test multiple variables to judge, if there are long-run equilibrium equations derived stability and further verification system. The results show that the data for each variable from 2003 to 2013 can draw the corresponding regression equation which means long-term equilibrium relationship between variables can be represented by a specific regression equation, it further confirmed the core theory of this article that energy price volatility will lead to macroeconomic risks and quantify the risk analysis of macroeconomic research associated with each change caused by economic variables.The last part of the paper, based on the impact on the macroeconomic impact of energy prices shocks which is explored in the preceding paper portion and based on the transformation of economic growth mode of the actual situation, proposed measures from the macro and micro aspects address the impact of the transformation of economic growth mode during the energy price shocks and add the introduction of the concept of macro risk control system.Then advocate government to establish a sound risk control system for facilitating relevant decision-making departments to develop the transformation of economic growth mode policies. Of course, the focus of this paper is to explore the energy price fluctuations in macroeconomic risk in the transformation of economic growth mode and to establish risk control system is a simple idea.1 just aim to broaden the transformation of economic growth mode macroeconomic risk research and pioneer studies on the transformation of economic growth mode.