Study On Construction Project Investment Decisions Based On The Option Games

The construction industry in vigorous development, but our construction project investment decision method is too single, without considering the future uncertainty and competition of value investment effect, can not adapt to the construction industry diversification, complicated and changeable characteristics. Therefore, it is urgent to guide the investors to make scientific decisions by the new investment decision model.Construction projects in the traditional investment decision-making method contains defects can not be underestimated, as there is no consideration for investment irreversibility and sank the delay value of cost, investment oppor tunities and uncertainty value can not be quantified. The real option decision method of construction projects does not take into account the non exclusive nature of real options.In this connection, the option pricing theory and the theory of game theory, the combination of the construction of the project option game investment decision- making methods have emerged. The traditional investment decision method and real option investment decision method were compared, and find the lack of the traditional theor y, contrasting the advantages of project investment option game method as well as to its applicability in the construction project to carry on the analysis. And the known real option game theory evaluation model and method of simple induction and summary, and find the implied effects of real option game theory and approach to improve the actual based on of theoretical derivation result in the desired models: non cooperative option game model, cooperative option game and portfolio investment option game mode l. To provide a set of feasible investment portfolio decision model and algorithm for construction project theory and industry, to improve the level of C hina’s construction project investment portfolio decision- making has practical significance. Secondly, this paper under the conditions of competition, competitors and several oligopoly, investment projects, using option investment decision model is create uncertainty of market demand and investment cost of the two main duopoly- a model of random variables and the duopoly lead follow game model analysis of best value in different markets and construction enterprise project option value, executive function, provides the project value, especially investment optimal investment decision plan decision makers.This paper will build the project real option and game theory combined, taking into account both the project contains the intrinsic value, but also to consider the influence of competition of the project decision-making, which enables us to deep level prediction of the project in future value and growth in order to build project enterprises to make scientific and reasonable decisions.