Research Of Housing Price Fluctuation And Housing Bubble In Shanghai

Along with the development of economy and urbanization, housing price experienced a rapid rise in many cities, caused the concern about housing bubble. Bubble is a kind of abnormal fluctuation of price. Study on the influential factors of housing price fluctuation is helpful to prevent and control bubble from the source. And we can understand bubble degree in housing market by identifying bubble.In this paper, based on the real estate supply and demand theory and expectation theory, a housing stock-flow model which contains two types of market participants who have two kinds of investment to choose with two kinds of decision-making behavior was established to analyze the influential factors of housing price fluctuation. On this basis, the stock-flow model was converted to an econometric model. Then this research used the generalized difference method(GLS) and stepwise regression method(STEPLS) to make an empirical research of housing price fluctuation of Shanghai during 1996-2013. And this research used a statistical test and Ramsey model to measure housing bubble of Shanghai during 1996-2014. Through the two aspects of study above, this research drawed the following main conclusions:(1) Overall, consumers in the housing market of Shanghai bought houses for investment or consumption, without common real estate speculation phenomenon during 1996-2013. However, there were a few years in which speculation decision dominating consumer’s market behavior.(2) According to the influence degree from high to low, the factors which had a significant influence to the fluctuation of Shanghai’s housing price during 1996-2013 were: the change of population this year, the change of housing price last year, the change of equity price last year, the change of equity price this year. Among them, the population increased by 1% this year, the growth rate of housing price would increase by 11.76% this year. The housing price increased by 1% last year, the growth rate of housing price would fall by 0.54% this year. The equity price increased by 1% last year, the growth rate of housing price would fall by 0.28% this year. The equity price increased by 1% this year, the growth rate of housing price would fall by 0.18% this year.(3) The change of some factors such as construction cost, income and its expectation, interest rate and infrastructure investment showed no significant influence to the change of housing price in Shanghai during 1996-2013.(4) The housing market of Shanghai did not present the phenomenon of real estate bubble in most years during 1996-2014. But in 2003, 2004 and 2009, the possibility of property bubble was high. And the housing market of Shanghai took the greatest risk of property bubble in 2009.Finally, this paper put forward some policy suggestions to prevent and control housing bubble from two aspects, which are regulating expectations and raising the cost of speculation. At the same time, pointed out the shortage of this paper and the research prospects.