The Volume And Price Fluctuation Of Commercial Residential Houses:the Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Research Method

The volume and price fluctuation of commercial residential houses not only affects the stability of commercial house market, but also plays a vital role in the entire national economy development and the national housing welfare. This paper analyzes the relationship between the volume and price of commercial residential houses, researches on the decisive external and endogenous variables for the fluctuation of the commercial house transactions and explores the causes and the transmission mechanism. Besides, it establishes a commercial housing transactions wave theory which is consistent with China's national conditions and puts forward some real estate industry policies to deal with the fluctuation of the transaction, which will have great and far-reaching influence on the real estate industry and even the sustainable, healthy and stable development of China's economic.The paper mainly combine the theoretical analysis and empirical research method, based on the quarterly date of commercial housing transitions from shanghai, hangzhou and shenzhen between 2006 and 2010, adopt the modified stock-flow model to study the relationship between the volume and price of commercial residential houses. The result find that commercial housing transitions show up in a industrial expansion and contraction form recovery, prosperity, recession until depression. It is a short-term and random fluctuation around the industry development cycle. The transmission mechanism of China's commercial house transactions fluctuation in both volume and price is not stable enough, which differs in different time or different place. Due to the large externality of China's commercial housing market, the variables of volume and price doesn't exist the corresponding relationship. Both of those are influenced by such exogenous variables as urbanization level, income level, interest rates, market expectations, excess liquidity and carrying cost, so we need to explore the relationship under the change trend of those exogenous variables.