Forecasting And Analysis Of China’s Natural Gas Demand Based On System Dynamics

In 2014, The State Council has issued Energy Development Strategy Action Plan(2014-2020), the plan is mainly related to promote the development of the natural gas industry, which clearly put forward that by 2020 the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption will increase from 5% to more than 10%. Under the new background, to carry out research on natural gas demand and forecast the natural gas demand scientifically and reasonably have important practical significance to the state on formulating relevant energy development policy and the natural gas business enterprise on making decision deployment.This paper analyzed the related problems of natural gas demand in our country based on the theory of resource requirements, used the system dynamics theory and method, expounded the factors which affect the natural gas demand of our country, established the natural gas demand system dynamics model, used the data from 2005 to 2013 of the China statistical yearbook and China energy statistical yearbook, used the model to predict china gas demand of 2015-2020 and analysis the results.The specific content is as follows:Firstly, this paper analyzed the development of China’s natural gas industry. The analysis included about the present situation of natural gas production; the situation of energy consumption; natural gas consumption and the natural gas consumption structure. On the basis of these analyses, this paper pointed out the main problems which exist in the development of China’s natural gas industry.Secondly, this paper established the natural gas demand system dynamics model and tested the model. This paper expounded the influence factors of gas consumption, divided the natural gas consumption demand into seven terminal consumption fields, and established the natural gas demand system dynamics model, and through the model test, the result shows that the model can effectively predict the future demand for natural gas. Through the fitting degree testing, the result shows that the degree of fitting is good. By sensitivity test, the result shows that the gas consumption is sensitive to economic growth than other factors.Lastly, this paper carried out the system simulation and scenario analysis. System simulation results show that: from 2015 to 2020, the natural gas consumption from 204.054 billion cubic meters up to 311.28 billion cubic meters; external dependency from 37.31% up to 42.41%.Scenario analysis result shows that the relationship between the gas consumption and GDP growth rate is direct proportion.In conclusion, with the development of our economy, the natural gas demand growth rate become faster than output growth rate, the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas becomes prominent. Policy Suggestions are as follow:(1) strengthening exploration and development, increasing natural gas production;(2) accelerating the domestic natural gas infrastructure construction;(3) importing through various channels, seeking alternative clean energy and diversifying energy supply;(4) establishing strategic reserves of natural gas;(5) speeding up the cooperation with foreign country;(6) speeding up the straighten out the domestic price of natural gas, building natural gas futures market.