Expanding Analysis Of Xi'an Commodity Residential Demand By System Dynamics

Always,The operating income of real estate plays an significant role in the increase of Gross Domestic Product.The Real Estate industry has been getting hot consistently,with the government 's Macro-control policy on the real estate market,but there are still exist many problems under the surface all over the nation include Xi'an.The real estate market of Xi'an gradually appear some problems such as increase inventory pressure,imbalance of regional development,serious homogenization and the increase of operational risk etc.According to a survey that the disposable income of urban residents is rising,so that purchase capacity improving significantly,at the same time,and the demand for house is increasing diversity.In order to solve the problem of "de-stocking" for commercial buildings of Xi'an,this paper studied the condition of commercial buildings system in Xi'an firstly by designing questionnaires,analyzed the systems related to commercial buildings,based on the before,the boundary conditions of Xi'an commercial buildings system.Discussing the influence of the demand for commercial buildings in Xi'an based on the light of the status quo of commercial housing and the law of real estate market.The key factors are analyzed from the five subsystems of urban population,development of economic,price of house,supplement of house and demand of house.The relationship among the factors are analyzed and the key feedback loop is identified.The dynamic model of commodity house system is established to determine the basic formula,at the same time,according to the historical data of urban population,urban GDP and residential sales area in Xi'an from 2006 to 2015,Vensim software was used to simulate the demand,supplement and urban population of commercial house from 2011 to 2015,even the demand from 2016 to 2025 of hours.With the extension theory of diamond-shaped thinking,in the end of this paper,the main way of solve the "inventory" was found.Papers in empirical research part,according to the current of the development of Xi'an real estate industry's present situation in 2025,we can predict Xi'an commodity residential demand amounts to 3992.57 million square meters,24106.90 million square meters in supply,inventories amounted to 20114.33 million square meters.Xi'an as an important economic development city,commodity residential investment growth,the growth of supply and demand both sides contributed to the xi 'an commodity residential market development.With the paper's research results,the government need to reasonable and effective control macro policy in order to meet the market effective operation and maintenance of market supply and demand balance;the developers need to adjust the development progress,and open up new sales path to ensure that the enterprise can long-term business;the buyers need reasonable arrangement of funds and rational to ensure the maximum benefits of deposits of buyers that buy a house.Therefore,the paper studies have a good function of guide on the development of the real estate market.