The Evaluation Of Chinese Timber Import Source Risk And Optimization Strategy Research

The renewable and environmental protection characteristics of wood to promote the lumber market booming, but domestic timber supply is limited, the gap of supply and demandis is more and more big. In this context, import wood from overseas and expand the channel of timber supply become the main way to solve the gap of demand and supply of Chinese timberUnder the background of the increase in wood imports, understand problems from wood import, find the factors affecting the import of wood, judge the risk of timber import, ensure the stability of timber imports are the most important thing for policymakers.Firstly, this paper reviews the research and conclusion of literature on China’s timber imports and summarizes the research methods of imported energy from domestic and foreign scholars. Secondly, this paper select the log, sawn timber and veneer as the research object, introduces the import status of these three kinds of wood. Then, analysis the factors of the importing country in the political, economic, social and cultural, while definited as the sum of systematic risk and specific risk as overall risk with portfolio theory and set up the risk index model to evaluate the source risk of China’s timber import. The evaluation results show that during the period 2000 to 2013, sawn timber imports minimum risk, second log, veneer most at risk. The risk of import those kinds of wood is determined by the specific risk level, the fluctuation of specific risk of sawn timber and logs is relatively stable, the fluctuation of specific risk of veneer in the ups and downs. Under the premise of import quantity to research optimization scheme, find out the ways to reduce the import risk. According to the diversity, this paper established a nonlinear programming model based on the results of risk evaluation, explores the approaches to reduce the risk of timber imports. According to the way it is concluded that two different solutions, we compare two kinds of solutions to the actual, and analyzes the feasibility of the implementation. Based on the result of comparison, the paper Put forward some suggestions to adjust the structure of the wood imports. Log should reduce timber imports from Russian, increase imports transfer to the United States, Canada, New Zealand and other countries. Sawn timber need to reduce imports from Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, increase imports transfer to Finland, Sweden, Germany, Chile, New Zealand. Veneer should reduce imports form Vietnam and Malaysia and adjust imports to the United States, Papua New Guinea and Ghana, Germany. Finally, summarize the innovation of the paper and generalize the subsequent that need to further study of the issue...