Influential Factor Analysis And Trend Prediction Of Chinese Timber Imports

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy and society,timber imports grow rapidly.As a result,there is a significant increase on imported timber,which is not conducive to the stable development of the timber industry.First,based on the qualitative analysis,the multiple linear regression model was established to study the influencing factors of China's timber imports from 1990-2015,then this paper uses the panel data of 7 countries in 1990-2015 to find out the influential factor of Chinese timber imports.Then based on the quarterly data of timber trade from 2006-2015,gives a forecast by using the Multi-variable Grey Model MGM(1,2).The result indicates that:(1)for China and world major timber importing countries,real effective exchange rate index,construction of new buildings,exports of wood-based panel are most significant factors.If we treat China as major swanwood or roundwood importing country,the significant factors will change.(2)From 2017 to 2020,China's timber imports will increase steady by annual growth rate of 10.73%,by the year 2020,imports will reach 146 million cubic meters.Logs,lumber price show a slight upward trend,the average price of imports in 2018 will be $213.59/m3and $297.34/m3.Then this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.