The Impact Of Timber Imports On The Timber Supply Of China’s Construction Industry

Timber is one of the four traditional materials, which has many incomparable advantages, the construction industry is a very important sector in China’s economy and also the largest timber consuming sector.From 2000 to 2013, an average of more than 30% of the total supply of timber in China has been consumed by the construction industry.The timber demand of this industry will continue to increase in the future,but China’s domestic timber production is low and the diameter of its timber is small, so that it has to rely on timber import to ensure timber supply for this industry. This paper aimed at predicting future volume of timber supply and demand of China’s construction industry,finding ways to ensure timber supply of this industry according to the impact of timber imports on it.Firstly this paper reviewed and commented on the foreign and domestic studys about the timber demand and supply of construction industry, import trade of timber in China, then analysed the total amount and structure of timber demand and supply of China’s construction industry using descriptive analysis After that,this paper has built the simultaneous equations model and predicted China’s timber demand of construction industry from 2014 to 2020 by using it, and noted that the future supply should be consistent with the level of demand forecased according to the equilibrium principle of supply and demand. Subsequently, through the integrated use of multiple regression model and case of timber trade between China and Russia,this paper analyzed how the import of timber affected the timber supply of China’s construction industry. Finally, this paper provided policy recommendations such as making full use of international timber resource to ensure the timber supply for China’s construction industry.