The Empirical Analysis Of China-Africa Trade Gravity Model Based On Exchange Rate Volatility Theory

With the continuous development of globalization, the bilateral trade between countries on the impact of economic development is increasingly significant. In recent years, more and more countries to look to Africa is rich in energy, resources, and broad market. And China as the world’s largest developing country, Africa is the most concentrated area of the developing countries, China has become Africa’s largest trading partner. Although China and Africa played a role in the bilateral trade is increasingly outstanding, but with the increasingly fierce competition, how to maintain and expand the scale of China import and export trade with Africa, is particularly important.In this background, this paper based on the related theory of exchange rate fluctuations effects on bilateral trade, the inlet and outlet of the China-Africa trade gravity model was constructed. In order to explore determinants of China’s trade with Africa, our bilateral trade gravity model based on the analysis of traditional factors on the basis of to expand the trade gravity model, to build more can reflect the characteristics of China-Africa trade China-Africa trade gravity model. This article selected from 49 African countries to establish diplomatic ties with China during the 10 years from 2004 to 2004 panel data to carry on the empirical analysis, and the central African real exchange rate and other factors to import and export of comparative analysis, the influence of the increase of China-Africa real exchange rate is analyzed for the stimulating effect of the import and export commodities in China.In this article, the construction of China-Africa trade gravity model as the main body of the article, is also the innovation of this paper point. Aiming at the influence of import and export trade exporter production level, potential demand of the import country, the trade between the two countries is the relative price of a commodity, transaction costs measures, promote the trade between the two countries in five aspects, to expand the trade gravity model, makes the China-Africa trade gravity model is more in line with the actual situation. The core of the model of China-Africa trade influence factors in the effective identification, at the same time, the influence factors on the import and export of asymmetric effects, as China’s trade with Africa provide powerful basis for policymaking. And trade potential, analysis of China’s trade with African countries on the scientific analysis of potential for African countries trade potential differences in trade activities with regional characteristics, is also the subject of China-Africa trade gravity model for further extension.The results show that the vigorous development of China-Africa trade in recent years, but the trade, and unreasonable structure of problem increasingly prominent; African currency real appreciation of the central African export trade influence significantly, but less influence on China-Africa trade imports; China-Africa trade potential exchange rate system has certain ties with African countries, pegged to the euro exchange rate system of African countries has more advantages, the export trade of potential mining floating exchange rate system in African countries import trade potential mining has more advantages.