| Urban development is based on the use of construction land. Urban land is an important part of land use, and its expansion has aroused widespread attention from various experts. The use of construction land is irreversible. There will be no doubt that excessive exploitation and blind expansion will bring many problems to land resources and irreversible destruction to cultivated land resources and environmental safety. Therefore, how to research the existing trends and simulate future changes in construction land in a scientific and reasonable way seems essential to the sustainable development of land resources.The thesis takes built-up area of Harbin, the capital city of Heilongjiang Province, as the study area. Based on three sets of remote sensing interpretation data in the year of 1992, 2003, 2014 and extracting the data about construction land from each set, it analyzes the time variation of construction land expansion from the following three dimensions: growth rate, expansion intensity index, the contribution rate of expansion. At the same time, with the support of ArcGIS platform, using natural breakpoint method, the study analyzes the area expansion of the change rate of construction land in each district,and the center of gravity transfer model is used to analyze the distribution of the center of gravity in Harbin city from three aspects of the center of gravity coordinates,migration distance and migration rate. Finally, by using IDRISI software to analyze the influence factors of construction land changes, making the conversion rules and using CA-Markov Model to simulate the land use maps of Harbin in 2025 year, it reaches following conclusions:(1) Between 1992 and 2014, scale of construction land in Harbin City showed a continuous growth trend, with an increase of 396.6 km2 in the total land area of the study area, rising from 7.62% to 13.22%.The differences of extended at different times in various districts were significant. The expansion area of 1992-2003 is bigger than that of 2003-2014 in the districts of Hulan, Xiangfang and Daowai, and the situation in the other five are just the opposite.The growth rates in Songbei District(6.55%) and Xiangfang District(4.66%) are bigger than others during 1992-2003, accounting for 42.02 percent of the sum of eight regional rates in this period. The expansion in Xiangfang District(1.02) is the fastest. Hulan District and Xiangfang District made a great contribution to the whole study area in the respect of the extended construction land, accounting respectively for 27.02% and 21.46%, almost half of the contribution rate. Between 2003 and 2014, the growth rate of Pingfang District was much higher than others’, reaching 7.94%.Nangang District and Pingfang District are strong in this field, whose expansion intensity index is more than 1.Hulan District, Songbei District, Daoli District, Acheng District and Xiangfang District have a greater contribution rate of expansion, especially the Songbei District and Acheng District, whose total amount accounts for 34.45% of the total contribution rate of expansion. As an old town, the expansion volume of construction land in Daowai District is the lowest.(2) From the point of view of the space distribution about growth rate in the districts of Harbin, Songbei District is the most active area in the eight districts in the respect of expansion. During these periods of 1992-2003,2003-2014,1992-2014, the state of three periods in Songbei District is high speed expansion-rapid expansion-high speed expansion. The construction land has been in a state of low expansion or slow expansion in Nangang District and Daowai District, then the others in the expansion of the speed of the three periods is not stable. In sum, during these three periods, the spatial distribution characteristics of the variation rate of construction land in the districts of Harbin showed the trend which is that “The western area is lower than the middle area and the middle area is higher than that of the two sides.”(3) The shifting direction of the focus of construction Land in Harbin is uncertain. During 1992-2014, the focus of construction land migrates 2081.63 m to the Northwest, at a speed of 189.24 m/a. During 2003-2014, the focus of Construction land in the center migrates 2408.81 m to southwest, at a speed of 218.98 m/a. The migration pattern of construction land in Harbin was from the Northwest to the Southwest during 1992-2004.Population growth, economic development and urban planning have important effects on distribution focus of construction land in Harbin.(4) Between 2003 and 2014, the conversion between construction land and farmland is the most active. In the future, the emphasis should be put on the protection of cultivated land. This thesis merges the suitable image set of construction land conversion and the probable images of 5 kinds of land use into the land use suitable image, and applies it to the operation of CA-Markov model. And the suitable image set of construction land conversion is obtained from the combination of constraint conditions, which consists of Limiting factors about the basic farmland protection area, the waters, the existing construction land and road and suitability factors, and the probable images of construction land,which consists of the proximity of construction land, the proximity of the central city, the proximity of the road, and the proximity of the waters, by using weighted linear combination method.(5) It has been proven that Kappa coefficient was 0.9410, which shows that the CA-Markov model is of high reliability. In 2025, the total construction land in Harbin will reach at 1295.35 km2 through simulation, which will increase by 358.99 km2 compared with that in 2014.The expansion area of each district will be significantly different. The largest expansion area will be in Hulan District, reaching 90.03 km2. Then the Acheng District and Songbei District will come second. The expansion area of Nangang district will be the least. The construction land of Harbin mainly revolves around the main city and Songbei District. Songbei District will still be the main force in the expansion of urban land in the future. |
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