Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change In Linyi City Based On Logistic-CA-Markov Model

The land use/cover change is the important cut-in point to the research of global environmental change. It reflects the most direct interaction between human and nature. As a result, it has become one of the hotspots in the international academic research. Because the process of land use change is complex, it is essential to build simplified and abstract land use model, which plays an irreplaceable role in understanding the process, mechanism and future trends of land use changes. Combined with the characteristics, laws and trends of past and future land use spatial pattern change, we can better understand the process and mechanism of land use change and provide scientific basis for land management departments to adjust land policies timely, which can promote more reasonable land use and achieve the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources. With the development of society and economy, each area of our country is facing different levels of population, resources and environment problems, while the eastern region is particularly serious. As a result, the research of LUCC not only has important practical significance, but also provides reference for the effectiveness, continuity and pertinence of land policy.This paper takes Linyi city as the study area based on the data of Landsat TM images of2000,2005and2010of Linyi city. Transition matrix, land use degree and space center migration model are used to analyze the change and evolvement rule of land use pattern in the past10years from2000to2010in Linyi city. Then Logistic regression model is used to analyze the major driving factors of land use change and land use suitability as one of the following CA conversion rules in CA-Markov model, based on social and economic data in the study area, which respectively selected land use factors in natural and social economy and accessibility. On this basis, the CA-Markov model predicts the natural and the sustainable development pattern of land use pattern in the study area in2015and2020, whose results are checked and analyzed at the end of the thesis.The results of this study show that:(1) During2000to2010, different land use types present an unbalanced distribution. On one hand, the area of cropland, woodland, grassland and waters is varying decreasing, the reduction of crop land is the biggest, reaching7.98×104hm2and the smallest is water, only1753hm2. On the other hand, the area of construction land area increased rapidly, an increase of9.84×104hm2. In addition, the space center of gravity transfer model of construction land shows its obvious spatial agglomeration and dispersion characteristics.(2) According to the results of the model Logistic regression coefficient β and exp (β) which explore the driving forces of land use change, it shows that the effect of different kind of factors do not exist in isolation, but closely linked. The natural factors such as elevation and slope are innate basic conditions of land use change. Driving forces such as population and economy have the reverse effect on natural environment. And traffic accessibility plays a strong guiding role on land use morphology evolution.(3) There is difference of the fit goodness of logistic regression in different scale. Choosing100×100m,200×200m,300×300m,500×500m,800×800m,1000x1000m, a total of6kinds of simulation scale, comparing the area under the ROC curve, it shows that the best scale spatial pattern is200x200m in the study area, which is used as the foundation for the next step of data processing.(4) The land use type probability of each grid unit can be calculated through deformation of Logistic regression equation, which represents land development suitability of each unit. The method of map algebra is used to produce the suitability map of land use, and then atlas are formed, which are taken as one of the following CA conversion rules in CA-Markov model. The method eliminates the influence of human factors when setting the weights of selected factors in MCE method, so it is more objective.(5) Land use changes are predicted under two scenarios:natural development pattern and the sustainable development pattern. Results show that under natural development mode, construction land in Linyi will still maintain a rapid growth trend. According to this pattern of development, the contradiction between people and land will become increasingly fierce, the target of protecting cropland will be difficult to achieve, which will result in a serious challenge to the ecological environment and the development of social economy; under sustainable development mode, due to the impact of policies, the growth of construction land will be slower, cropland will increase. Overall, if the policy can be implemented effectively, the land utilization structure will tend to be stable and achieve the planning objectives.