| After the real estate industry entered to the market era in 1998, the housing prices of China continued to rise at the basic stage. Although after several adjustments, but the price is still shows a certain bubble phenomenon in several cities. Commercial housing has the dual properties of consumption and investment, the price level fluctuations have a significant impact on the quality of life of residents, and the city of high prices has been the focus of attention of the society. Since 2010, the government continued to implement the regulation of the real estate market, but the policy effect is not up to expectations, then the implementation of effective real estate policy is very important for the government. Current academic evaluation of the effect of real estate policy focus on qualitative analysis, the lack of quantitative analysis and evaluation of different policy control system effects. With the rapid development of Internet technology, network become the main way of the government issued policies and transmission of information, the majority of people to get the real estate policy information through the network channels to search for and make the appropriate decisions. According to China Internet Development Survey Report, the most important tool for public initiative to obtain information on the Internet is the search engine, Baidu search in the current Chinese search market occupies a monopoly position. And real estate policy related Baidu search index can reflect objectively on the demand side that is the general public awareness and understanding of the real estate policy of the real estate market, which provides a new method for the quantitative study of the effect of regulation of real estate policies. In this paper, Baidu search index quantifies the public awareness and understanding of the extent of different types of real estate policy, quantitative analysis of different real estate policy impact on the price of commercial housing, and focus on the differences in the regulation of the effect of different types of real estate policy, and they are in different effects in different regions, in order to evaluate the effect of government regulation of real estate policies provides a new perspective.Based on the search keywords, through baidu index quantized six types of real estate policy and corresponding policy search index. Select the text data is time 2011-2015 (monthly), the period in the real estate policy tight in the overall implementation phase. In this paper, a second and third tier cities in the country and commercial housing price index and search policy for the study, the relationship between them were studied and comparison. At the national level, this paper uses the time series OLS model. To study the three levels of cities, this paper uses the panel data fixed effects model.The results maintain three opinions. Firstly, It verified that the quantization from the perspective of network search real estate policy research house prices and commodity relations theoretical analysis, that people information-seeking behavior is a measure of consumer interest and understanding of the policy, and policy information to understand and judge the degree it will affect people’s decision-making behavior and psychological expectations of buyers, and thus have an effect on the real estate market supply and demand, thus changing the volatility trend of Real Estate Prices. Secondly, at the national level, tax policy, financial policy, population policy, security policy and administrative policy had a significant effect on the price of commercial housing. In the period of this study, the negative effect of administrative policy is the strongest, he positive effect of the population policy is the strongest,the land policy had no significant effect. Thirdly, at the city level, the effect of various policies have certain regional differences. Among them, the level of administrative policy still have the largest impact on the price of commercial housing, and is the most effective tool to cool the real estate market, the influence degeree higher than first-tier cities with 12.1 percentage points. Inhibitory effect of tax policy on weaker prices, and regulated by the same degree of first-tier cities than in the two or three lines of the cities, the influence degeree higher than the nationa with 4.1 percentage points. Security policy also has a significant negative impact on the commercial housing price of first and second-tier cities, but has a significant positive effect on the three-tier of the cities. The population policy has a significant positive effect on the commercial housing price of first and second-tier cities, but has significant negative influence on the three line of the cities. The financial policy have a significant positive effect on cities’s commercial housing prices, and the effect is largest strength in three line cities, 3.9 percentage points higher than the national cities, the second and first-tier cities are weaker. Finally, based on theoretical and empirical research results, this paper provides some policy suggestions for the future development of China’s commercial housing market. |
PDF Full Text Request