Spatial Econometric Analysis Of The Impact Of Integration Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei On Shandong’s Economic Development

Integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the major national development strategy is bound to the regional economic development have far-reaching effects,and modern transportation system,communication technology and Internet technology will flow of Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei closely linked together.labor,capital,technology and other factors of production in the region to be convenient,the spatial correlation of the economic development become a problem can not be ignored.In the process of economic development, Shandong should consider to spatial interaction with the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.According to the economic development policy of adjustment of regional economic development situation,play their own advantages,take the initiative to adapt to regional development,promote the local economy healthy and stable growth.This paper makes use of the economic and financial statistics data from 2010—2013 of the four provinces of Shandong,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,using spatial correlation test method,impulse response analysis and spatial econometrics method, the characteristics of spatial structure of the economic development of Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Economic Development of many factors to carry on the empirical research.First,spatial correlation of Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei economic development for the global Moran ’s I index and the local Moran’ s I index test.Establish SVAR model of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Shandong GDP,based on the SVAR model,the impulse response analysis of Shandong’s economy from Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei was observed.Then,In the premise of considering Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic development has the space effect,the research of the spatial lag model and spatial error model is established to study the various factors that affect the economic development of Shandong.Research results show that:(1)Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong’s economic development has a positive spatial correlation,Spatial interaction is significant,the economic development has the cluster tendency,economic development level in Shandong Province is affected not only by this province of production factors,but also influenced by economic development in neighboring provinces,economic development has spillover effect.And the positive spatial correlation of economic development is increasing, the economic ties between Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are increasingly close.(2) Shandong local Moran’s I index decreases, the advantage of economic development do not stand out,the radiation effects on the surrounding area is decreasing year by year.The gap with Shandong and Beijing,Tianjin’s human capital and high-tech industries is obvious.At the same time,Shandong is catching up with Hebei.Shandong’s economic development is facing greater pressure.(3) In the long term,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s economic growth has a role in promoting Shandong’s economic development,there is competition between these regions,but more of a win-win cooperation.(4) The human capital has become an important force to promote economic development,high-quality labor force makes great contribution to economic growth,human capital can effectively promote the economic growth of Shandong Province.Agglomeration of financial and foreign direct investment to promote economic development is more prominent,well-developed financial system to better achieve the optimal allocation of economic resources, funds will be directed to more efficient industries.Foreign direct investment has played an important role in strengthening the financial strength,the introduction of advanced technology, optimizing the industrial structure.In the current period,the urbanization rate and the proportion of the third industry are not significant enough to promote the economic development.Finally, according to the results of empirical research, the full text are summarized.And from dependent effect and spillover effect of economic development between Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the development of human capital,promote financial innovation and the introduction of foreign investment etc. put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the economic development of Shandong Province.