Impact Of China-Australia FTA On Dairy Import In China

21 of experience in the negotiations, has experienced dozens of large and small consultations and talks, China and Australia in Canberra, Australia finally signed a long-awaited China-Australia free trade agreement, launched in 2005 from the start of negotiations, China and Australia After a decade before in November 2014 to determine the substantive content of the FTA, officially ended negotiations. After accession to the WTO, under the impetus of globalization, China’s dairy industry has been rapid development, particularly in dairy products import trade, as negotiations difficulties, mainly because of the international competitiveness of Australian dairy products is very strong, with exceptional conditions, a higher level of quality dairy products, dairy industry is more developed, but compared to our dairy industry is more vulnerable and do not focus on innovation, high cost of production of raw milk, quality and safety control system is not perfect, so the two sides negotiating dairy issue very seriously, although China and Australia trade in dairy products is not great, but the potential for bilateral cooperation in the dairy industry is very large.Today, the establishment of Sino-Australian FTA, China’s dairy imports will have a great extent, the agreement stipulated Chinese imports of dairy products from Australia tariffs will be gradually reduced to zero between 4-11, Chinese imports in Australia It will also increase the amount of dairy products, which will change the whole structure of Chinese dairy imports, and change the pattern of China’s overall domestic dairy producers, especially in the traditional dairy industry will have an impact, but the exact size of the impact and influence the direction of the article the main contents.In this paper, in order to study in Australia since the signing of free trade agreements on the impact of China’s dairy imports, imports of dairy products to China as the main object, by historical data collection and analysis, using the method of comparative analysis obtained Chinese dairy imports the status quo. and to further build trade gravity model, in-depth analysis of the future potential of Chinese dairy imports, compared to the dairy trade situation between China and other dairy trading partners. Australia and the FTA imports of Chinese dairy products affecting trade, we reached the following conclusions:(1) signed in Australia FTA marked the arrival of a new era of Chinese dairy products, the establishment of Sino-Australian FTA for the Chinese dairy trade have a huge impact, based on past historical data comparison can be drawn, Chinese dairy imports will affect China-Australia free trade agreement signed by China and Australia will be a substantial increase in trade in dairy products (81.25%). import prices will be substantially reduced, while the same for the imports of dairy products trading partners New Zealand, the US and EU trade in dairy products, will be a slight decline, the price will be with the signing of the Sino-Australian FTA declined slightly overall, China’s dairy imports would significantly increase trade volume, import prices will fall; at the same time the domestic dairy industry will be affected, it will yield declined slightly, while prices rose slightly. Although the Australian dairy trade volumes compared to other trading partners is not the biggest, but the future development potential can not be underestimated, for now, the main importing countries or New Zealand, followed by the United States;(2) historical data we can see that China’s dependence on imports of dairy products gradually increased from 2008 onwards, dairy imports and import prices have increased significantly, the dependence of New Zealand dairy products rose the most obvious, but also the degree of market concentration the highest, but the rising price of raw milk in new Zealand makes the domestic dairy industry to bear, increasing scale of production of such dairy companies have to find new trading partners, China and Australia signed a free trade agreement to bring these companies new opportunities for Australian dairy products has a strong substitution effect, according to the content of the agreement, after the price gradually reduce tariffs, raw milk and raw milk prices in new Zealand more competitive than that for the trade of Chinese dairy imports will become increasingly large, for New Zealand dairy exports trade impact is very shock resistance;Chinese dairy import trade gravity model constructed (3) article, select the trade volume between China and its trading partners, the GDP of their respective countries, from the capital and six indicators dairy import tariffs, drawn up in Australia signed a free trade agreement on Chinese dairy import trade affect the size and direction of the impact, which significantly affect the absence of a straight line from this indicator China and the capital’s business partners, as storage and transport of dairy products special sex leads to this result, while several other indicators have a significant impact, especially in import tariffs, China and Australia agreed FTA 4--11 years to gradually reduce import tariffs on dairy products, in the process, Chinese dairy products import trade and trade will gradually rise, but dairy imports from Australia will be a significant increase in speed will rise with decreasing tariffs faster.