Study On Chinese Dairy Trade In The Process Of Trade Liberalization

With rapid development of Chinese economy, dairy product plays more and more importantrole in daily life of Chinese residents. Under strong pull of demand, Chinese dairy industry hasgotten rapid development. By 2005, the amount of cow in hand of China has reached 55．26million heads, and 28．67 million ton raw milk has been produced. Developing dairy industry issignificant to adjust rural economic structures, improve income level of peasants, and transferlabor force from rural areas to urban areas. With acceleration of opening, Chinese dairy industryhas to join the competition of international market. Because Chinese dairy product can't meetdomestic consumption demand, every year China imports abundant dairy product. Therefore, tradeliberalization, whose aim is to reduce or abolish trade barriers, would directly make somedifference on Chinese dairy trade, and make great influence on Chinese dairy development.After the accession to WTO, tariff on dairy products of China was further reduced. By 2005,tariff rate of most dairy products has dropped to 10-15%. Along with the reduction of tariff,import of dairy products increased rapidly. It's evident that sharp increment of import volumewould impact domestic dairy manufactures and production of raw milk. At the same time,negotiations of free trade agreement were active. New Zealand and Australia brought forwards theidea that form free trade agreement with China. The two countries have great advantage of dairyproduction. The negotiations with them would make great difference on the development ofChinese dairy industry. Therefore, what influence would the process of dairy trade liberalizationmake on the development of Chinese dairy industry, which become an important problem ofagricultural and rural economic development.In this dissertation, the author simulated and analyzed the influence on Chinese dairydevelopment by the process of trade liberalization. The analysis used spatial equilibrium modeland was based on whole acknowledgement of world market of dairy product and traits ofproduction, consumption and trade. The main contents include the following aspects:Firstly, the author analyzed traits of Chinese dairy industry and existed problems in thedevelopment of Chinese dairy industry. In the aspect of production, low was the yield level of rawmilk per head, and the distribution of dairy production was imbalance; the manufacture of dairyproduct had dropped behind, and the categories was simplex. In the aspect of consumption,average level of Chinese dairy consumption was low, and great difference existed between ruraland urban area. Consumption was in the stage that fresh milk and yogurt dominated. In the aspectof trade, import of dairy product increased rapidly. Import of dry dairy product was dominatingand Import of liquid milk assumed the trend of decrease.Secondly, the author analyzed the process of trade liberalization of dairy trade from twoaspects, which were multilateral trade negotiations and negotiations of free trade agreement. Fromthe aspect of multilateral trade negotiation, multilateral negotiations contributed much to dairytrade liberalization, but in the Doha round multilateral negotiations got limited achievementbecause of great differences among various parties. From the aspect of negotiations of free tradeagreement, the negotiations were still hard to opening the markets of developed countries underthe restriction of trade protectionism. We must combine negotiations of FTA with multilateraltrade negotiations to realize trade liberalization.Finally, the author simulated the influence of trade liberalization on dairy development in China and other areas by spatial equilibrium model. The author made relevant parameters of thethree areas ,China, Oceania, and other regions, by literature; and designed various scenarios, basedon the process of trade liberalization, from two aspects of negotiations of FTA and multilateraltrade negotiations; and simulated scenarios and analyzed the influences by the results. The authorhad opinions that making FTA with Oceania would have greater influence on Chinese dairydevelopment while reducing tariff around the world would be good for Oceania's dairy industry.At last, based on analysis results, the author had given some advice that can accelerate dairydevelopment, such as "be cautious of FTA negotiations", "impulse multilateral trade negotiation".