The Impact Of Trade Liberalization On China’s Imports Of Dairy Products

The development of new trade liberalization between China and New Zealand, on the one hand, can bridge the gap between consumption and production in China’s dairy industry, on the other hand, impact domestic dairy processing enterprises. Especially in 2019, the elimination of all dairy tariff barriers to trade on both sides will lead more huge impact on our dairy products industry. This paper analyzes the status of China import and export trade, while combining with domestic production and international trade environment by multiple linear regression model, and considering six types imports in the dairy products trade between China and New Zealand after the implementation of Sino-New Zealand FTA in 2008, to explore the profound influence of trade liberalization between China and New Zealand to China’s dairy products import trade.Meanwhile, this study has found that after 2008, with China and New Zealand gradually abolish tariff barriers in dairy products between the two countries, China’s dairy imports and production is bound to be affected to a large extent. In volume terms, China will significantly increase the number of dairy products imported from New Zealand, while reducing the number from the United States, Australia and the European Union in a low decline. From the production point of view, the output of raw milk and dairy products in China continues rising, and has been the third place in the world, but the per capita milk production and milk single yield are still below the world average. In terms of consumption, dairy products consumption in China increases steadily, but per capita consumption is also behind the global average. And domestic consumers have ever trapped into "trust crisis" of local dairy products, compared with the increasing degree of preference to foreign dairy products. From trade structure, New Zealand now and some time in the future is still the most important source country in importing dairy products, and their dairy industry will have great potential in the future.Finally, this paper comes to a conclusion based on theoretical analysis and empirical test. Most importantly, aiming at China’s dairy production, consumption and trade (including the whole trade and Sino-New Zealand trade), the paper puts forward corresponding recomm endations.