Analysis And Forecast Studies Of Business Expanding Based On Seasonal Adjustment

As an important part of the power grid company marketing business, business expanding can lead the future electric selling market trends. However, at present stage the utilization of basic data by the related department of Grid Company is still low, especially in terms of business expanding. Business expanding decision mainly focuses on management level including policy formulation and perfection of the system, as well as service level including the speed of power supply and the quality of service, while ignoring the business expanding data itself and the information of the future electric selling market hiding in for a long time. In this paper, business expanding data has been quantified, and combined with quantity data. And an analysis and forecast model of business expanding based on seasonal adjustment has been put forward, which mining business expanding data from both micro and macro sides to forecast electricity, and analyze the potential trends and possible growth of the future electric selling market.The research object in microcosmic aspect is the customer with high voltage newly installed business; mainly explore its growth state of electricity consumption in its debugging period, including the growth law and stable value of electricity consumption. First, after making sure the customer group of the customer with newly installed business, the most representative typical customers can be selected. And then, use growth curves and the Principal Component Analysis method to get the growth law of customer group. Based on that, the customer’s growth law can be got. Seasonal adjustment is used to reject the effect of seasonal fluctuation and irregular variation on electricity consumption in order to seek the internal laws of time series, and fix the result at the same time. At last, introduce the concept of load factor to forecast the stable electricity consumption of the customer with newly installed business.The research object in macroscopic aspect is the customer group. And a method of electricity sales forecast based on business expanding has been put forward, which can accurately predict the regional electricity sales situation in the next one to two, and can effectively solve the problem that regional electricity sales forecasting in a conventional way is unstable which is caused by the statistical laws of regional grid is not obvious. It provides another way for electricity forecasting and improves the accuracy. The seasonal adjustment on expanding capacity and electricity sales time series separately are used to find the trend components and the grey correlation analysis method is to find out the month that the correlation degree of two trend components is maximal. Then regression analysis is used to forecast electric quantity.Finally, because the growth of business expanding is also stimulated by the growth of electricity sales, so the antecedence of business expanding and electricity sales should be discussed firstly. The specific approach is forecast electric quantity and expanding capacities by each other in the method put forward in chapter 4, and then contrast the fitting degree and prediction accuracy to find out the antecedence and analyze the reason. In can also contrast the electricity sales forecasting accuracy in different range of customer groups. As a result, in a short time period, business expanding is antecedent. Therefore, the trend of expanding capacities can be used to analyze the potential trends and possible growth of the future electric selling market by five different emphases evaluation indexes.In short, this paper quantifies the business expanding data and electricity sales data, to find out their relationship by using seasonal adjustment to reject the effect of seasonal fluctuation and irregular variation. Mining the business expanding data in both micro and macro sides to forecast the electric quantity of customer and customer group, and using the forecast method to discuss the antecedence of business expanding and electricity sales, and using the trend of expanding capacities to analyze the potential trends of the future electric selling market. Analysis of examples verify that the validity of the proposed method.