| The international oil price collapsed by more than 50% in the later half of 2014 and further declined in 2015 which was once below the lowest price during the financial crisis or even below the cost price of oil producers in many countries. Admittedly, global economy would benefit from proper low oil price, but such a severe drop will do more harm than good. It will not only destroy the stability of oil and gas market, but also give rise to supply deflation of each production links through transmission of the industrial chain and even deflation. The fluctuations of oil price has a far-reaching influence on the world economy and politics. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the source and sustainability of oil price fluctuations when it is sharply changed in order to deal with possible energy crisis. Based on the above analysis, this paper took quarterly oil price during 2000-2015 as the research object and explored the influence factors of oil price through theoretical and empirical studies as well as the analysis of impacts of China.In theory, this paper successfully constructed the analysis system based on the fundamental property of oil and oil market after combing the pricing theory、related literature、the oil industry and the change of pricing power and depicted the influences of oil price from 6 dimensions which are supply、demand、inventory、financial factors、 market monopoly and geopolitical events.In empirical study, this paper constructed SVAR model and utilized impulse response and variance decomposition method to get more insight. The study find that, supply factors have a relatively small and smooth negative influence on oil price and increasing contribution to the fluctuations of oil price during 2000-2015 while demand factors have a smooth positive influence on oil price with lower increasing contribution to the fluctuations of oil price. The influence of inventory factors change from negative to positive with contribution degree presenting a stairs type to continuously rise. The influence of financial factors plays a role of pushing oil price but it perished quickly. The influence of linkage between market factors is volatile while money market factors have a significant negative impact on oil price as an exogenous variable.We also find that the main influence factors of oil price transferred from demand side to supply side during 2000-2015 through static comparison method. The China factor has a significant positive impact on oil price during 2000-2007 while the statistical significance declined during 2008-2015. Further study through dynamic rolling regression find that the influence of China factor is in a dynamic reduction process. Especially after 2012, the relative influence of China factor on oil prices is less than 1%. At the same time, we noticed that the economic growth of China slows down while the oil demand of China is in a steady growth through the empirical study. We explained this inconsistent phenomenon from the perspective of internal consumption structure of our country, oil inventory mechanism, etc.Finally, this paper put forward several policy suggestions to our country under the background of current low oil price and sharp fluctuations. These policy suggestions include:establish and improve the mechanism of oil inventories, take time to promote energy structure reform, establish and improve oil futures market, etc. |
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