An Empirical Study Of The “China Factor” On The Fluctuation Of Copper Price In International Periods

As a kind of international bulk commodities,metal copper is not only an essential raw material in industrial production,but also has financial attributes.In recent years,the fluctuation of international copper option price caused many concerns.China is one of the world's largest copper consumption country,and the influence on the international price of copper,coming from ''Chinese factor'' has been heated debate.According to the existing research,the majority of scholars study this phenomenon mainly from the perspective of demand,who aggree with that a large amount of domestic demand for copper is the main reason for pushing the international copper price up.Basing on the above research results,this paper tries to make a theoretical framework,incorporating all the "Chinese factors",to study.In this paper,the "Chinaese factor" can be divided into two aspects: supply and demand factors,financial factors.From theperspective of supply and demand factors,the industrial added value,inflation rate,refined copper production,import and export volume index are selected as the indicators;from the perspective of financial factors,this paper selects the Chinese broad money supply,the RMB against the U.S.dollar exchange rate as the indicators.It is because of the interaction of these two factors,the international copper price formation mechanism has become extremely complex,demonstrating the characteristics of nonlinearity,structural alienation,dynamic and so on.In this paper,the supply and demand theory is used as a support,and use the MSVAR model for empirical analysis.The results show that the demand factor of "Chinese factor" is exaggerated,and the copper output amount and inflation rate have a significant impact on the international copper price.