The Measurement Of Urban Real Unemployment Rate Based On MIMIC Model

The unemployment plays a significant role in the national economic development and social stability. Unemployment rate is not only an important index to reflect country’s economic situation, but also the important basis to help government set economic policy. However, the official unemployment data is calculated with data of registration, which may not accurately reflect the true level of unemployment in our country. Therefore, measuring the urban unemployment rate scientifically accurately and reasonably is meaningful in both the theoretic and practical filed.This paper constructs a unemployment rate-centric evaluation framework based on improved Okun’s law and the Phillips curve. We collecte all the data from the Chinese macroeconomic yearbook between 1991 and 2014, and solve the MIMIC model and compute the accurate number of unemployment rate. In order to use limited measurable data measure more accurate results and reduce the error, we divide the whole model into two parts. First of all, we establish a MIMIC model which focus on the potential economic growth rate, and carries on the growth rate estimate. Then we establish a MIMIC model which focus on the urban real unemployment rate, in which former estimator is introduced, estimating related parameters and measuring the real unemployment rate.Finally we verify the estimator of real unemployment rate according to the theory of the Phillips Curve. Verification result is in accordance with the theory, so the new measure value is credible.Results show that the unemployment rate in our country actually is always higher than registered urban unemployment rate, and the urban real unemployment rate shows a trend of fluctuations rise. In recent years, urban unemployment rate is at 8.5%. Based the results, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions in order to provide scientific basis to relieve employment pressure.