Warning Research For China’s Urban Unemployment Rate

In the continuous development of the world economy today, especially since the subprime crisis of the United States, unemployment problems, become an Obstacle to the economic development, more and more people pay attention to it, China is no exception. February8,2012, the State Council formally approved the" employment promotion planning (2011-2015)". It is the first and the only national document about employment which is approved by the State Council these years. It is visible that unemployment problem has been put on the agenda.Since a long time our country take the registered unemployment rate as the standard to measure the national unemployment, but it can not reflect the unemployment rate comprehensively, Most countries in the world are consistently use the same definition as their standards which was formed at the thirteenth session of the International Labor Statistics Congress at1982October meeting. That is within a certain age, in a given time, all the people who engaged in a job more than an hour one day, from it he can get paid or self-employed. The meeting also formed the definition of unemployment, that is, at a certain age, during the test period, all the people who can work but do not have a work, but they positively to seek a paid-work. This makes our unemployment data are not comparable in the world, so the government want to adopt investigated unemployment rate as the standard to measure our national unemployment rate.Too high of the unemployment rate is harmful to the sustained, fast, stable development of our society, it can even cause some turbulent social phenomenon to some extent. While too low of the unemployment rate can also cause some negative effect. The early warning system of unemployment is observed through several warning indexes to predict the change of the unemployment rate and how it infect the social and the economy. According to these, we can make suitable measures to avoid some harmful situations. This paper adopts the method of diffusion index as the main method of our research, based on the analysis of empirical data, combined with the investigation data of Sichuan province, I provide a number of recommendations China’s future policies on unemployment. Diffusion index based on the economic indexes, then weight all the time dilation variable, we will get a percentage. We calculate the expansion percentages; obtain a sequence which was composed of diffusion dynamic indexes. The values of this sequence are painted in a plot, we can obviously see the fluctuations of each economy variable have spread.The first chapter is the introduction part. This article introduces the main topics of this research, it’s background, significance, content, idea, method and framework, focus, difficulty in writing and the main innovations. This chapter gives the general framework, so the later chapters seems more orderly. The second chapter mainly introduces the basic knowledge of unemployment rate and current research on it. Mainly elaborated the unemployment statistics and concepts in different country, this part also involves the questions in our unemployment statistics. Because the situation of each country is different, the unemployment statistics do not have a unified standard, this causes the unemployment rate between the countries are not comparable. Our unemployment statistics has its own characteristics, since a long time, we used registered unemployment rate as the official data, but the index value are far from the actual unemployment rate index value, so many experts and scholars have put forward to use investigation unemployment rate as our country’s actual unemployment rate data. This chapter also introduces the domestic and foreign research background and present situation on unemployment rate, so the following research can keep up with the pace.The third chapter is about the unemployment early warning theory. Related to the unemployment early warning theory, the research framework of domestic and foreign research scholars and the theory of diffusion index. Finally it analyzes the necessity of establishing early warning and some situations needing attention.The fourth chapter is the empirical part, this is a feature section. First, I introduce the analysis idea, the methods and models,Then choose the qualitative factor indexes which influence the unemployment rate; I use the method of econometrics to do some analysis and test, screening out the most important factors;The fifth chapter is some conclusions on unemployment early warning research and some suggestions on policy. Based on the above theory and the empirical analysis we get the collusion, according to the conclusion of the article, combining with the actual survey data from a city of Sichuan province,this paper give some suggestions for future policy.