The Research Of China’s Urban Unemployment Rate Regulation Interval

Unemployment is one of the most prevalent and important economic phenomena of modern economic society. So controlling the level of unemployment to achieve full employment has become one of the objectives of the macroeconomic policies of the Governments. The high unemployment rate will not only hinder the rapid development of the national economy, but also intensify social conflicts and undermine social stability and unity. China is a large population, relative surplus labor supply country, maintaining a moderate level of unemployment is particularly important. As we all know, the first20years of the21st century is full of important strategic opportunities for China. In recent years, China’s economy has maintained rapid growth. Since2003, China’s GDP growth rate has remained above9%, only in the year of2009, the most serious impact of the international financial, slightly less than9%, but the registered urban unemployment rate rose to4%from3.6%since2001. The information in Population and Labor green Paper of2002disclosed by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that China’s urban the actual unemployment rate had reached7%of the cordon. Up to the year of2008, China’s urban unemployment rate was9.4%, more than7%of the international warning line. March22,2010, Premier Wen Jiabao met with foreign representatives attending the China Development Forum2010and indicated that China has200million unemployed people. These figures constantly challenged the bottom line of the government and the public’s endurance. Therefore, researching the target interval of the urban unemployment rate level in China’s "Twelfth Five-Year" period to find out the real cordon of China’s urban unemployment rate is of theoretical and practical significance to unveil timely economic policies and expand employment.If so, it’s possible to achieve sound and the fast development and comprehensively promote the construction of a harmonious society.Although individual scholars have proposed the concept of "moderate unemployment", but it’s still relatively obscured of its theoretical definition. They mainly used the international experience data to illustrate our modest unemployment levels and econometric analysis to explore the level of China’s urban unemployment rate in the control interval is relatively uncommon. From the domestic situation, most of the quantitative analysis used the registered urban unemployment rate as a reference to determine the regulation of China’s urban unemployment rate target interval. However, due to the lack of unemployment statistics, there are some inherent defects in using China’s registered urban unemployment rate to measure the unemployment. So China’s urban unemployment rate can’t expose the real situation of the unemployed and its real significance is not ideal.This paper attempts to view registered unemployment rate in urban areas and survey unemployment rate as the research object respectively, to identify each of the regulation of the target interval. Firstly, I use threshold regression model based on historical panel data of29provinces in the1992-2010years to estimate optimal threshold level of China’s urban unemployment rate under the control of the indirect effects between the level of urban unemployment rate and economic growth. So that we can determine the optimal control of China’s registered urban unemployment rate target interval from the angle of quantitative analysis. Taking into account the lower economic development goals of the "12th Five-Year" period, it’s appropriate to relax the tolerance on the unemployment rate. By means of the employment elasticity to adjust the registered urban unemployment rate-control target interval of the "12th Five-Year" period is sensible. It’s more practically significant to establish early warning mechanism of the unemployment problem and develop timelier employment policy. Secondly, the towns survey unemployment rate, which is calculated by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Cai Fang, director of the Economic Research Institute of Population and Labor (2010), more truly reflect the unemployment situation. Contrasting the fluctuation trend line of the urban registered unemployment rate and survey unemployment rate, I find that China’s registered urban unemployment rate more stable than the urban survey unemployment rate by1to2percentage points lower since2001. With the relationship, we can roughly estimate the target interval of the town survey unemployment rate. Under the background that China will formally implement the survey unemployment rate during the "12th Five-Year" period, finding out the regulation target interval of the town survey unemployment rate is more practically significant.