Research On The Structural Effect Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation In Export Market

Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in 2005, especially the RMB is about to join the SDR currency basket; the change of the RMB exchange rate is more and more attention from all over the world. After that the RMB exchange rate always to get up, from 2005 to 2014, the rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has more than 32%. Along with the continued appreciation of the rennin, to the United States China’s exports growth rate will continue to falling, from 13.8% in 2005 fell to 2.2% in 2014, falling from 13.8% in 2005 to 2.2% in 2014, the 10 years fell more than 10%, visible real exchange rate of RMB appreciation would reduce China’s exports to the United States. Europe, the United States and Japan have been the main export markets in China (China’s exports to Chinese Hong Kong are not involved in the comparison).1998-2014 China’s exports to the three markets accounted for the proportion of total exports of China has been maintained at more than 42%, the highest peak of 56.35%. Through currency crisis of 2008, the economies of all countries are affected by varying degrees, including Europe and the United States by the impact of the largest, until today, the economy is still in a state of depression. Following the 2013 continued austerity policies,2014 European Central Bank began to carry out the policy of quantitative easing, which in a certain extent is conducive to the recovery of the European economy, but the affection is limited in limit time, this also means that European economic recovery still needs a long process. For a long time, China majorly depends on exports and financing to stimulate economic prosperity, Europe as China’s largest export market, the economic downturn, the impact on China’s exports can be imagined. With the economic downturn in Europe, the depreciation of the dollar, RMB appreciation and the ensuing, as a big foreign trade country, it is necessary to a depth study of China’s export market structure, by change the export market structure to reduce trade friction, ensure sustained and stable economic growth.After 2005, the research on the export structure is becoming more and more diversified, including influence factors, export product structure, export market structure and so on. The purpose of this paper is to study the change of the structure of the export market, which is caused, by the change of RMB exchange rate. It has five chapters. The first chapter, introduction. About the significance and background, research ideas and methods, and from the exchange rate changes the influence on trade structure, exchange rate changes on the export structure of impact and export trade market structure of the previous literature are summarized. The second chapter is about the theoretical basis of the research on the influence of the export market structure. First about the meaning of the effective exchange rate, the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate, indicates that this paper examines the exchange rate are effective exchange rate; secondly, it discusses the changing process of the RMB exchange rate system; then the purchasing power of the evaluation theory, the exchange rate elasticity analysis theory and factor endowment theory is described. The third chapter is the general analysis of the export market structure. The first analysis of 1998-2014 years in the major trading partners of China and China’s effective exchange rate of the relative change of, which are the real effective exchange rate and the nominal effective exchange rate analysis, to obtain relative change trend of various countries’ exchange rate; then, the changes of 1998-2014 years in our country the main trade partners analysis, in recent years in China’s main export markets. Finally, elaborated the remain exchange rate change is how to affect the change in the market structure of export; the conduction mechanism is what lays the foundation for the later analysis. The fourth chapter, the empirical analysis of the effect of export market structure. The main empirical analysis methods to understand the change of RMB exchange rate under the condition of changing export market structure in China and the proportion of speed, degree of contact between them, the design of the model firstly, select the panel data model; secondly choose 1998-2014 15 trading partners (Leah Australia, Canada, China Hong Kong, France, Germany, Italy, Japan Holland, South Korea, and Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, Malaysia, Philippines) exports, GDP, real interest rate and the bilateral real effective interest rate variables; finally, the logarithm according to the empirical analysis, the increase of RMB real effective exchange rate will have different effects on different trading partners. The fifth chapter, conclusion and proposal. In conclusion, that the current market structure of China has trade structure is relatively simple, the exchange rate regime does not play a significant role, exchange rate formation mechanism is not perfect wait for a problem, so China in paying attention to the premise of the market in developed countries, increase exports to developing countries, especially owns comparative advantage products, developing countries to develop the market, optimize the single market structure; improve the existing exchange rate formation mechanism and accelerate financial innovation, enhance the ability of enterprises to deal with foreign exchange risk.