Study On Credit Risk Evaluation Method Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprises At Bank Of Quanzhou

Whether a country is a developed or not. small and medium-sized enterprises plays an important role in a country’s economic development, especially in absorbing personnel employment, stabling social unrest, driving local economy, this effect is more significant. In the process of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, however, the major problem of hindering the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is the shortage of funds, this kind of phenomenon of China’s small and medium-sized enterprises is more obvious. Government has constantly introduced various policies to call for each big commercial Banks or other financial institutions to provide loans to cash-strapped small and medium-sized enterprises in order to alleviate the shortage of small and medium-sized enterprise capital problem. Every big commercial bank constantly increases cash-strapped on small and medium-sized enterprises for its own business expanded, but also responding to the corresponding state of the call. Although commercial banks constantly increase cash-strapped on small and medium-sized enterprises, to some extent, can bring their own corresponding interests, but also undertake the risk of default of small and medium-sized enterprises. How commercial credit risks of those loans of small and medium-sized enterprise are assessed and predicted is a big problem which each big commercial bank will face. Quanzhou bank as a member of the important domestic commercial Banks, assessment or prediction of commercial credit risk of Quanzhou banks of small and medium-sized enterprises is also crucial. Whether a country is a developed or not, small and medium-sized enterprises plays an important role in a country’s economic development, especially in absorbing personnel employment, stabling social unrest, driving local economy, this effect is more significant. In the process of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, however, the major problem of hindering the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is the shortage of funds, this kind of phenomenon of China’s small and medium-sized enterprises is more obvious. Government has constantly introduced various policies to call for each big commercial Banks or other financial institutions to provide loans to cash-strapped small and medium-sized enterprises in order to alleviate the shortage of small and medium-sized enterprise capital problem. Every big commercial bank constantly increases cash-strapped on small and medium-sized enterprises for its own business expanded, but also responding to the corresponding state of the call. Although commercial banks constantly increase cash-strapped on small and medium-sized enterprises, to some extent, can bring their own corresponding interests, but also undertake the risk of default of small and medium-sized enterprises. How commercial credit risks of those loans of small and medium-sized enterprise are assessed and predicted is a big problem which each big commercial bank will face. Quanzhou bank as a member of the important domestic commercial Banks, assessment or prediction of commercial credit risk of Quanzhou banks of small and medium-sized enterprises is also crucial.This paper first reviews related literature on the business credit risk, states the connotation, basic features and effects of small and medium-sized enterprises, analyses financing situation of small and medium-sized enterprise deeply, based on that, explains the credit risk sources of the small and medium-sized enterprises, and then combined with specific case, analyses the current situation of bank credit business of small and medium-sized enterprises of Quanzhou and the causes of commercial credit risk sources of Quanzhou bank of small and medium-sized enterprise, elaborates the method of commercial credit risk assessment, screening, finally chooses factor analysis and binary LOGISTIC regression model as the research method of this article. This article selects Shenzhen sme board manufacturing part of the financial data of listed companies as sample data. To make between model and real problem matching degree higher, firstly uses factor analysis method to decline 15 indexes selected, finally extracted five main factors, namely, solvency, profitability, development ability, operating ability and the liquidity factor. On the basis of that, this paper chooses the Z value as standard, whether the small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) default Z value is greater than 2.675, corporate default probability is small; Z value is less than 2.675, the corporate default probability. With binary variables as the dependent variable, with the above five main factors as independent variables, builds commercial credit risk evaluation of binary LOGISTIC model of small and medium-sized enterprise. Predicted results found, if 0.500 is as cutting, forecast model for high risk about the risk of the prediction accuracy of the sample company reached 63.6%, for low risk of default sample prediction accuracy is 96.8%, the overall predictive accuracy of 85.4%. Commercial credit risk prediction of that model for small and medium-sized enterprise is accurate.