Hunan Rural Logistics Demand Influence Factors Analysis And Prediction

As the government attaches great importance to the "Three Rural Issues", more and more relevant support policies have come into being, and the logistics industry is also constantly developing. In this case, there is increasing demand for logistics in rural areas, and as a major agricultural province, Hunan Province is constantly developing relying on the congenital advantages, thus it is urgent to solve the upcoming rural logistics problem.This paper analyzes rural logistics demand with the development of rural logistics as the focus. First of all, it first analyzes the economic status of rural areas in Hunan Province and the current status of the entire of logistics industry, and then it finds out factors affecting logistics demand in rural areas in Hunan Province and analyzes and predicts quantitative indicators. Finally, through the analysis results, this paper identifies problems in logistics demand in Hunan rural areas and provides targeted suggestions for its future development, striving to timely and reasonably solve the demand issue. This paper mainly solves two problems:one is the constitute factors affecting demand for logistics in Hunan Province. Based on a large amount of literature review, this paper classifies these demand factors and divides them into three categories:market demand factors, economic factors and other demand factors, etc. Then, each category is also subdivided, and after qualitative analysis, indexes are also abstracted and quantifies while the gray correlation analysis method is adopted to analyze correlation between them to obtain the relevance ranking as well as the more factors most related to Hunan rural logistics demands. Then, these factors are explained according to the actual development. Another problem is to predict Hunan rural logistics demand. This paper establishes the prediction model equation through the regression forecast method and gray prediction method and compares error rates of the two methods. The model GM (1,1) with a high degree of fitting is selecting for the prediction, and key factors in the development of rural logistics industry are identified combined with the result. Finally, according to the predicted data and analysis results, this paper proposes some targeted suggestions, which serves for certain reference as how to stimulate rural logistics demand as well as provides certain guiding significance for future development of rural logistics in Hunan Province.