Demand Forecasting And Analysis Of Influence Factors Of The Rural Logistics In Henan Province

Agriculture is very important to Chinese economy. Now, agriculture affects thenational economy development．At the16th National Party Congress, an issue waspointed out clearly that the great tasks of building a moderately prosperous society ina11aspects are to balance the economic and social development in both urban andrural areas，to build modern agriculture，to develop the rural economy and to increasepeasants’income．At present, the bottleneck that affected the agricultural developmentchanges from the realm of production into the current distribution, and developingrural logistics becomes the key point to help the agricultural product compete in theinternational market, to promote agriculture development and to increase the incomeof farmer．Henan is a huge cultural province, in recent years, in recent years, theagricultural products of Henan has achieved very good results, the developingagricultural product of Henan will take an important role in the issues of China’sagricultural economic development and the national food security. But,Henan hasmany issues on food production, especially for rural logistics.This dissertation is based on the theoretical basis of rural logistics to undertakeresearch．According to the basis of drawing on the domestic and abroad experienceand absorbing previous research achievements，and the view of general theory ofmodern rural logistics，this dissertation describes the characteristics, the trend and theimportance of forecasting of rural logistics. The paper attempts to study on thedevelopment Status of the rural logistics of Henan, analysis of the advantages anddisadvantages, and make a clear direction for future development of modernagricultural logistics about Henan. In the end, the paper make a empirical research inthe rural logistics of Henan by grey system theory, and propose corresponding advices and countermeasures to accelerate the development of Henan province modemagricultural logistics．Because the research of rural logistics still in primary stage, the prediction theoryof rural logistics is still weak. In order to have a systematic understanding of thesituation of Henan rural logistics,this article from the perspective of modern rurallogistics theory, through selecting a multi-target, and forecasting the demand of themodern Henan rural logistics with gray system, this, not only enrich the field ofmodern rural logistics theory, but also to deepen the people’s understanding about thesystem characteristics of rural logistics, and finally, I hope that it is useful forgovernment decision-making and other stakeholders.