The Research On Export And Enterprise Output Volatility

Export trade promotes the economic growth has been proved by the extensive theories and practice, export trade is advantageous to the efficient allocation of resources,to promote technology spillovers and promote innovation. But it can only reflect the export trade gains on the macro level, did not reflect the effects of export trade growth in output level of the enterprise. At the beginning of 20 century, the scholars’focus on output growth transfer gradually from the national level to the enterprise level. Studying the impact of the export trade to output fluctuations enables enterprise know their market competitiveness and promote the enterprises develop steady.On the basis of international trade theory and reference to previous research, we build the model about the fluctuations of enterprises’export to the output,using the filter method to measure the fluctuations of our country enterprises’export openness to output. And divided the enterprises into high-tech enterprises and low-tech enterprises by their ability of research and development, what’s more, we divide the enterprises into east region, middle region and west region by their region, and measure the different enterprises’volatility of export to output.Using China’s manufacturing enterprises’panel data in 2000-2009,and using fixed effect model to make empirical test, the paper finds export trade has inhibitory effect to the enterprise’output fluctuations. Enterprise’s export extensive marginal can reduce output volatility, but the inhibiting effect of exports to the enterprises’output volatility is mainly driven by intensive marginal, it means the enterprises export more, the output volatility is less. What is more, enterprise’s capital intensity is higher, the volatility of output is lower. The enterprise’s larger actual sales can reduce enterprise output volatility, Enterprise’s technological innovation ability makes significant impact on output fluctuations, eastern region enterprise’s export has obvious inhibiting effect on output volatility. Finally, on the basis of the research conclusion, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.