Optimization Of Export Structure In China

Under the background of opening economics, by the natural endowment advantage of labor cost and market volume, China experienced a sustaining expansion on the international trade, which significantly stimulated the economic growth. However, behind of the data, there is potential problem of export structure, and the quantitative expansion of trade model has been proved to be to the dead end, which even blocks the economic growth. Recent research shows the fact that there are lots of zero points existing in export matrix. And the research reviews the change process from zero export to positive export, pointing out that export growth is not only the intensive margin, but also includes the extensive margin. What's more, the extensive margin can offset the converse effect brought by intensive margin. But to this problem, few research was conducted from the view of "zero point" to define the export structure in China, explore the motivation and approaches of optimization of export structure.Based on the perspective of intensive margin and extensive margin, this paper firstly decompose the dual-level export structure from the dimension of product and geography, and proposes a definite method to analyze the change trend of zero point in the export structure and the source of the dual-level export structure. Further more, integrating with the dynamic industry model with heterogeneous firms, it builds an analysis framework which combines the intensive margin,extensive margin and the change of export structure. Secondly, from the exogenous factors and the product inner character, and based on the decomposition of dual-level export structure, this paper builds a decisive model on analyzing the main factors of optimization of export structure, and does the relative demonstration on the factor influencing mechanism of the dual-level export structure on each level. The optimization problem of export structure is first researched based on the intensive margin and extensive margin, and then based on the geographic diversification and productive diversification in extensive margin to research the reoptimization problem of export structure. Thirdly, two optional approaches are analyzed, i.e. chasing pattern and offset pattern, and to be aimed at the change of variable trade cost, the applicability on the industrial level is verified. Finally, the main approaches of optimization of export structure is provided. The conclusions are: (1) China's export structure is on a primary stage of "extensive margin is not a patch on intensive margin and producitive diversification is not a patch on geographic diversification". But the promotion effect of extensive margin on export growth is enhanced year by year, and the export value per category is much stronger in producitive diversification. From the perspective of zero point, the chapter 3 decompose the dual-level export structure from produce and geography, and proposes a suit of definite method which can distinguish the old/new target country and the old/new product to find out the source of export growth, and uncover the structural problem behind of the export growth. This approach makes up the disadvantage of traditional approach which defines extensive margin from the perspective of country level, and it also lays the foundation of building the analysis framework of deeply understanding the relationship among the intensive margin,extensive margin and the optimization of export structure, integrating with the dynamic industry model with heterogeneous firms.(2) The exogenous variable except the two default variables in standard gravitation model has the same significant influence, while the endogenous variables, that are price and intermediate good property, both have the significant negative effect on intensive margin and the significant positive effect on extensive margin.Based on the demonstration of intensive margin and extensive margin comparison, chapter 4 researches on the optimization of export structure, and the emphasis is the effect difference of north property,price and intermediate good export. The research shows that no matter from the quality or the quantity perspective, China can base on the two default variables in standard gravitation model, to increase the export to the countries with large market scale and small geographical distance. Along with that the export diversification is more and more important, China should increase the diversity of the product in the trade with developed countries and promote the extensive margin. Extensive margin can offset the deterioration trade condition brought by intensive margin, which supports the export of new products with high added value. Comparing with the repellency of intensive margin, the intermediate good trade is in favor of extensive margin, so China can make use of the comparative advantage, and in the meanwhile achieve the uprate in the product value chain.(3) Each endogenous factor has consistent effect on the different pattern in extensive margin.The effect of exogenous factor on producitive diversification does not turn worse by the bad shock, but the effect on geographic diversification turns worse by the interaction of economic fluctuation. Based on the demonstration of geographic diversification and producitive diversification comparison, chapter 4 researches on the reoptimization of export structure, and the emphasis is the effect difference of economic fluctuation,price and intermediate good export. The research shows that, nowadays with lots of unsure factors, China should focus on producitive diversification. Affected by producitive diversification with high added value, extensive margin has a inner advantage of gradual upgrading. Trading in intermediate good promotes export of new product but can't promote geographical diversification, so China should improve the export of high quality new intermediate goods.(4) The main path of Chin's optimization of export structure is the offset pattern, i.e. the increased share of extensive margin offset the lost share of intensive margin, thereby promotes the optimization of export from the structure. From the perspective of intensive margin and extensive margin comparison, chapter 6 explores the main approaches which are fit for the China's optimization of export structure, and to be aimed at the change of variable trade cost, verifies the applicability on the industrial level. The research shows that the reduction of variable trade cost is ineffective on the optimization of export structure of the representative labor-intensive industry(textile industry), but the reduction of custom rate promotes optimization of export structure in the the representative capital-intensive industry (general equipment industry). The result supports the theory on the offset pattern predicted before.