The Extension Early Warning Model And Its Applications For The Vulnerability Of Coal

As the largest developing country in the world, China has been in the lead of coal production for a long time. The large amount of coal output strongly supported the economic construction of our country; meanwhile the occurrence of continuous emergencies of all kinds severely limits the development of the coal industry and even the economic construction process. Although the Party and the government has paid long-term attention to safety problems of coal production enterprises, supplemented by a series of laws, regulations and policies, the effect is not very prominent, and there is no substantial changes in the safe production of coal enterprises. To find the most fundamental reason, it is mainly because we don’t have a thorough understanding of the causes for coal emergencies and evolution mechanism, and also there is lack of advanced technology and equipment, basic concepts of emergency management of managers and a perfect emergency management system. Coal enterprises consist of an open and complex system during production operating, and are highly open and sensitive because of the limitations of construction conditions and technology. Any aspect of tiny disturbance may cause a huge impact on the safety of the construction process, for which we have to form forewarning of the vulnerable parts in this system so as to reduce the probability of vulnerable hazards to the minimum. Therefore it is necessary to work out a identification method of vulnerability factors and a forewarning model. Moreover the results of forewarning can help decision makers and managers find the shortcomings and problems existent in enterprises and are of practical significance in improving the ability of emergency management in the future.This paper made an analysis on the current emergency management level of coal enterprise and the existent restrictive conditions through substantial spot investigations and collection of data, summarized the necessity and importance of vulnerability forewarning in coal enterprises and relative vulnerability theories. It gave a comprehensive analysis of the vulnerability factors from four aspects, namely human, material, management and environment and made a further subdivision and detailed explanation. To avoid error, we include management factors into human factors, establishing three first grade indicators and 25 secondary indicators of forewarning system of vulnerability extension.Work out the objective weight of indicators by factor analysis method and the subjective weight using entropy method and finally the synthetic weight through Lagrange Function. This combines the respective advantages of the two weighting methods to ensure the scientific points and rationality of the weight. Finally, using extension theory to build an extension model centering on matter element and correlation function. To verify the reliability and practicability of the model, we take the XX coal mine in Shanxi as an example. We obtained original data through on-the-spot investigation, expert scoring and data collection and use Excel to calculate the correlation level of the grades of vulnerability safety forewarning from 2011 to 2015 in this coal enterprise. According to the results, the comprehensive vulnerability is not stable in this mining area. Most of the time it is in the state of light alarm and needs improving in many aspects. The unstable vulnerability of personnel in the mining area should cause the vigilance of management personnel; the unstable material vulnerability and environmental vulnerability need to be further consolidated. The results are basically in line with the actual situation, which shows that the model has reliability and practicability. Suggestions has been made on reducing the vulnerability of coal enterprises according to the forewarning results.The innovative point of this paper lies in:(1) the adoption of comprehensive weight method to take into account the weight of the subjective and objective factors with upmost truthfulness;(2) the introduction of the concept of vulnerability to transform passive respond to active management risk source and use scientific vulnerability index system and forewarning model in coal enterprises, having important theoretical and practical significance in helping decision makers and managers form a clearer awareness of the existent deficiencies and shortcomings, improving prevention and control abilities and guaranteeing the safety of construction.