| Since the mid-eighties, famine early warning systems have been implemented throughout Africa. This research focuses on expanding the analytical methods used to evaluate the information collected by these systems. Time series techniques are employed to explore the vulnerability to food insecurity for eight regions in Mali. The first part of the study develops an econometric model of the dynamic relationship between socioeconomic and agroclimatic measures, and the state of food security vulnerability. For each region, a single-index leading indicator model is constructed to identify significant relationships that enhance early warning of supply-side susceptibility to food insecurity. The indexes distinguish between periods of high and low vulnerability to food insecurity and are compared to reference cycles derived from qualitative assessments of vulnerability. The vulnerability indexes produced turning points that tended to provide early warning of one to three months lead times to the onset of periods of moderate or high vulnerability to food insecurity.; The second part of the research concerns spatial and temporal market integration and the econometric tests used to measure such relationships. The vulnerability index developed in the first part is used in the tests of market integration to examine the functioning of goat markets in Mopti. A model that explores the relationship between regime shifts, expressing different levels of vulnerability to food insecurity, and price information is developed. Empirical results suggest that there exist highly significant regime shifts in the level of market integration in Mopti goat markets which are triggered by the state of vulnerability to food insecurity.; Whether markets are integrated and, if so, the degree to which markets are integrated is important to policy makers. Markets that may have appeared integrated in less vulnerable times may cease to function well under stress. Rather than moving to a deficit region, a surplus in one market may remain in that market during a period of food insecurity. Thus, policy makers should find this information useful in their efforts to mitigate food shortages as they decide whether food aid is necessary, how to distribute food aid shipments, and whether to purchase imported grain. With this in mind, early warning also encompasses understanding the manner in which markets respond in times of crisis. |
