Study On The Fluctuation And Forecast Of Coal Price In China

The coal is always occupied the leading position in the one-time energy use and consumption structure, which is the important pillars that could be lead our national economy to be high speed, sustained and healthy development. In order to cope with the depression situation of the coal industry, the policy and measures formulated by the government that be used to prevent the coal price fell didn’t take effect, especially leading to serious losses of the coal enterprises. Reaearch on the formation mechanism of coal price and the future trend of the coal price prediction is helpful to the coal enterprise and the government, which contributes to hedge the negative influence of the fluctuations of the coal price by some appropriate mearsures.This paper analysis the current situations of the coal market and the factors that affect the fluctuation of the coal price based on the theory of the energy supply, the theory of the energy demand, and the theory of the formation mechanism of the coal price. And then make predictions for the coal supply and the coal demand through the model of the GM(1,1) and the error correction respecticely. Also, taking into account the economic transiton and the reform of the market, the paper analyzed the fluctuation mechanism of the coal price using a nonlinear model of the MSIH(2)-VAR(2) over the period from March 2003 to December 2015. In the end, combining the qualitative analysis and the quantitative prediction together to make prediction for the coal price.The main empirical results are as follows:(1) The results from the model of the GM(1,1) for the coal supply shows that the coal supply will reach 34.81 tons in 2020 and the minmum amount of 34.06 tons, the coal production will decrease first and then increase in the future six years.(2) From the perspective of the model of the coal demand, There exsits the long-term equilibrium relationship among the coal demand, the economic growth, the industrial structure, the coal price, the exchange rate and the alternative energy. Finally, the empirical results from the model of the error correction shows that the demand of the coal will be 29.78 tons, and decline 2.502% average annual in the future six years.(3) From the perspective of the nonlinear model of the MSIH(2)-VAR(2) that divide two regimes for the coal price, we find that the dynamic relations among the economic growth, the import and the export of the coal, the international coal price, the exchange rate and the domestic coal price depend on the different regimes; The degree of the response of the domestic coal price in regime 1 is bigger than the regime 2, although the response of the domestic coal price to the shock of the coal import and the international coal price shows the same path; The difference of the response the domestic coal price to the shock of the exchange rate and the economic rate shows the bissest; The response of the coal import to the shock of all other variables are all in different in two regimes, however, the response of the coal export to the shock of the the domestic coal price and the coal import is in the same path between the two regimes.(4) The empirical results from the perspective of the coal supply and the coal demand shows that the coal price tends to be felled based on the theory of the supply and the demand, and the coal tends to be overcapacity in the next five years, in addition, the balance of the coal supply and the coal demand reaches the minimum in 2018. Movere, the results from the coal prediction shows the same, and the coal price increases in the August 2016, but the effect is not obvious cover the period from Janury and December in 2016. According to the conclusion of the research, the government departments should respond to the reform of the supply side and speed up the integration of the coal industry when promulgating the policies that help the market, in order to promote the coal market developing healthily.