The Analyse And Countermeasures Study On The Balance Of Coal Market Supply And Demand In China

The energy is an important material foundation of human survival and social progress; it's also a kind of substantial basic resources for economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. The situation of energy resources in China is"lack of oil and gases, but rich in coal". The characteristic of energy resources structure determines that coal is the main energy in China. For a long time the proportion of coal to primary energy is above two thirds in the production and consumption structure in China. Coal resources are foundation stones in national energy safety, and play an important strategic position in the national economy.The imbalance between supply and demand of coal market can hinder the healthy development of coal industry seriously and bring disadvantageous effects to each aspect of national economy. As the further establishment and improvement of the market economic system, the balance between supply and demand of the coal resources will depend on the market mechanism more and more, it won't work without macro-control of government either. Government macro-control should take the harmonious development of coal industry with society, economy and environment as an final objective, which is base on scientific forecasting of coal demand and supply.In this paper, the objects of study were the supply and demand of coal resources in China. Based on the analysis of present situation of coal supply and demand in China, the paper forecasted mid-and-long term supply and demand by applying the various quantitative forecasting methods synthetically and establishing corresponding mathematical models, and then put forward some countermeasures to achieve the balance of supply and demand in coal market. The forecast for coal demand and supply can provide a basis for establishing the mid-and-long term development strategy of coal and energy and have a great realistic significance for sustainable development of coal industry, energy security and social & economic objectives.First, the current situation of supply and demand of coal in China was stated. It included the coal supply form which contained resources condition, production scale and structure, investment in building and regional production patterns; it also included the coal demand situation, the structure of demand and relationship between coal demand and economic development; in addition, some relevant factors influencing coal supply and demand had been analyzed. A great deal of data had been collected and compared to reflect the real situation and existing problems which is good for the future forecasting.Second, future demand of the coal market in China was forecasted. At the beginning, the general forecasting models were given after summarizing the basic principle of each forecasting method briefly. Next, combined with historical data of the coal demand, the multivariate linear regression model and gray system model of coal demand were set up. Then give the forecasting results of each model by using advanced statistical software to analyze. Last, in order to improve prediction accuracy, the change weight combination forecasting model was used based on results of above two forecast models.Third, future supply of the coal market in China was predicted. After introducing exponential curve which is a trend extrapolation forecasting method, exponential curve-fitting model and grey system model were established to forecast coal output independently. Then, the coal supply was forecasted based on results of above two forecast models by using the change weight combination forecasting model, which can improve the result of combination and raise the forecast precision.Finally, on the basis of coal supply and demand forecasting results in China, the future balance of coal supply and demand was analyzed. And it made the conclusion that coal supply would be slightly less than demand as the coal market's trend in future. That was to say the gap between the demand and supply of coal will not be great, and economic development will not be restricted greatly. Then, based on the price elasticity of coal demand and supply, the coal future price trend was expected to rise in fluctuation. Last, combining with foregoing analysis of theory and demonstration, the countermeasures and suggestions were given to promote coal market balance of supply and demand in China.