Study On The Supply And Demand Of Coal Safety Assessment And Forecast Warning In China

In China,the coal is primary energy consumption recently,which accounts for about70%of total energy consumption,we think that will rise.The problem that energy demand and energy consumption and energy supply is coming,which increase the pressure of china.Statistics show, China energy consumption accounts for the world total energy consumption10.4%, second in the world.The huge energy consumption and energy supply problems, followed by oil prices, coal prices rose year by year, and even once a shortage of oil, coal, electricity.In2002,2003,2004for three consecutive years the majority of city electricity, may not have blackouts in2009; Wuhan, Harbin and other places gas shortage serious.In the past,we thought we have abundant resources and people, vast territory and abundant resources.However, the coal resource scarcity, non-renewable nature of the quantity, quality decreased year by year, highlights the supply and demand of coal safety problems.Coal mine safety problem has become one of the countries that can not be ignored in non-traditional security strategy content. Study on the safety of coal resources supply and demand have very important significance.The paper will solve the following problems:the theoretical basis of coal resource supply security of supply and demand of the coal resources safety;evaluation;forecast the situation of supply and demand of coal resources; coal resource supply security early warning; maintaining the safety of coal resources and countermeasures.Therefore, by focusing on the safety of coal supply and demand issues, focusing on the supply and demand of China’s coal resources arrangement degree calculation and coal resources supply and demand forecasting, early warning.The main contents of this paper include the following:(1)Research on the basic theory of supply and demand of the coal resources safety issues.Resource security is an important part of national security.Resource security is closely related to and economic security, and it’s an important strategic significance for national security, the research of coal resources safety, especially on the supply and demand,was important practical significance for the maintenance of national economic security.Research on resource security theory including the definition and classification of resource security, analysis of the factors influencing the resources security, discusses the importance of resource security for the national economic development and social progress, points out the research content of safety of coal resource supply and demand.Description of the system of resource scarcity theory, including resource scarcity, comprehensively expounds three scarcity theory, Malthus’s absolute scarcity of resources, the static economic scarcity of resources on Ricardo and John theory of Muller.The analysis of the supply and demand theory of economics, to sort out the development process of the supply and demand theory of economics, to analyze the microeconomic theory of supply and demand, supply and demand from the market perspective, drawing coal supply curve, coal demand curve and the coal supply and demand curve.On the theory of sustainable development, the connotation of sustainable development analysis theory, the idea of sustainable development, the sustainable use of resources theory, externality and public goods theory, intergenerational equity theory and three kinds of production theory, sustainable supply of coal issues discussed.(2) Research on the present situation of supply and demand of coal resources in china.The coal resource is supporting the development of heavy industry, related to the basic energy national economy overall, coordinated, sustainable development.Research on the present situation of supply and demand of coal resources in China including the analysis of the present situation of coal resources supply in China, such as the distribution of coal resources; coal resources situation of production such as production base distribution and the layout of the coal industry; coal production showed a steady growth momentum.The research status of coal demand in China including coal demand location distribution, such as the Bohai economic circle, the economic circle of Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta economic circle; coal industry demand distribution; linear correlation analysis of China’s GDP and coal consumption.On the analysis of supply and demand of coal resources in our country the problems such as the coal supply and demand relations changes frequently, the supply and demand of coal, coal supply and demand of regional reverse distribution by the transportation bottleneck, the safety of coal production and consumption safety problems.(3)The empirical evaluation of the security of supply and demand of coal resources in China.Quantitative evaluation of security of supply and demand of coal resources, influence factors analysis of supply and demand of coal resources safety first in China.Then build the supply and demand of the coal resources safety evaluation index system according to the factors of safety of coal resources supply and demand effects, including the establishment of the principle of the index system, the evaluation index for optimization of building evaluation index system, to explain the meaning of evaluation index.Then establish the supply and demand of coal resources in China safety evaluation method, four methods are introduced in this paper mainly applies to:entropy method, AHP, grey relational analysis and TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model.Finally, the TOPSIS evaluation of the security of supply and demand of coal resources in China.Through the collection of evaluation index data and calculation, the establishment of evaluation index weight, weighted normalized decision matrix comprehensive evaluation calculation and according to the scheme of press close to, calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety, according to Chinese coal supply and demand of evaluation results are analyzed. (4) Research on the prediction of the supply and demand of coal resources in China and the trend of price.Prediction and analysis of Chinese coal resources supply, an overview of Chinese coal resources supply characteristics, research shows that the production cost of coal enterprises coal production in China increased significantly, steady growth, rapid growth, coal industry investment has steadily increased total net imports of coal; the gray GM (1,1) model; grey GM(1,1) coal in our country supply prediction.Then carried on the forecast to the situation of coal resources demand in China, outlines the characteristics of Chinese coal demand; introduce NAR model, and uses this model to predict the situation of coal demand in china.Finally, to analyze and forecast the price trend of coal resources in China, analyzed the current situation of Chinese coal and industrial product prices; on the basis of CR price index to draw our power coal, coking coal and coke prices; the short-term and long-term prediction of coal price in china.(5) Research on the supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety warning.Discussion on coal resource supply security early warning problem, first analyzes the supply and demand of the coal resources safety warning significance.Analysis of supply and demand of the coal resources including security early warning and forecasting, elaborates the importance of coal resource supply security early warning.Then a comprehensive exposition of the coal resource supply security early warning system.Including the analysis of the coal supply and demand fluctuations, the coal supply and demand of security early warning analysis and comparative analysis of the supply and demand of coal safety early warning method.Finally, the demand for coal supply security early warning system of empirical analysis.Including the establishment of the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree, for advice and analysis, the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree and the supply and demand of coal safety early warning simulation.Through the comparative analysis, we can see, the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree test and TOPSIS method to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of our country coal safety degree is consistent, results show that the coal supply and demand situation in our country, more and more serious, need to take measures, guarantee the safety of coal supply and demand.By the systematic research, the basic conclusions of this paper include:(1) Put forward the supply and demand of coal safety problem research ideas and theoretical basis.Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign energy security, put forward the idea of this research and analysis framework.Research shows that, oil can be used as a result of resources security studies on coal supply and demand security reference, analysis of some quantitative can be applied to the research of this thesis.Security of supply and demand of coal resources mainly centers on two coal resources supply and demand aspects, therefore, this paper focuses on the supply and demand situation of Chinese coal resources analysis, empirical evaluation of security of supply and demand, Chinese coal resources of Chinese coal resources supply and demand situation and price trend analysis and forecast of supply and demand, Chinese coal resources safety early warning system.In the theoretical basis of the research on the basic theory of security, system analysis of supply and demand of the coal resources, namely resources safety theory, resource scarcity theory, supply and demand theory of economics and the theory of sustainable development. (2) Through the qualitative analysis, screening out the safety evaluation index of coal supply and demand, supply and demand of coal resources in China and the construction of safety evaluation index system.Safety factors of supply and demand of coal resources in China includes four aspects, namely resources factors, market factors, economic factors and social factors.Selected16indexes,production rate, supply and demand increasing ratio, self-sufficiency rate, alternative sources of energy accounted for the proportion of energy consumption, imports accounted for the proportion of coal consumption, with oil prices, the railway transport capacity, elasticity coefficient, coal consumption per unit GDP consumption ratio, input and output rate of selection, CO2emission weight, mortality million tons of coal and the urbanization rate, coal reserves than, than to succeed.(3)Through the comprehensive evaluation of TOPSIS, calculate the supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety.The use of entropy method, AHP, grey relational analysis method to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of coal resources in China security evaluation index weights and sorting, using TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method, to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety, in order to reflect the supply and demand situation of Chinese coal resources.The results show that,2008-2011security of supply and demand of coal resources in China is C+={0-4265,0.4118,0.6020,0.5678}. The order in China:C2010> C2011> C2008> C2009.(4)Forecast the situation of supply and demand of coal resources in China, analysis of price trends, drawing the coal price trend chart by the grey GM (1,1) model, VAR model and CR price index, and preliminary forecast of coal price.Research shows that, China coal output is about5379276402tons in2020, coal demand is about5830640000tons, coal is in short supply.The variation is small coal price forecast, forecast the power coal and coke price increases are basically the same in2013, slightly less than the level of7.77%(respectively179.268and163.067), the level of coking coal price index rose an average amplitude is slightly higher than the7.77%(about595.598).The annual coal price index rose an average rate of7.77%.The coal supply and demand situation is fairly severe in China, we must control it.(5) We test the supply and demand of the coal resources safety warning degree.Through the analysis of the demand and supply of coal resources safety warning system, established the supply and demand of coal safety early warning evaluation index system, established the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree, select the relevant data during2008-2011, are warning degree test, test result is consistent with TOPSIS evaluation, safety evaluation showed that the supply and demand of the coal resources in this setting and safety early-warning index system is scientific and feasible.Coal supply and demand shows more and more unsafe, need to take measures to protect the security of supply and demand of coal resources in china.