Research On The Spillover Effects Of Trade Between China And America

Since China and the US established diplomatic relations, bilateral trade has developed rapidly.Since China joined the WTO in 2001, CHN-US economic and trade relations is rising to a new height. When president Xi visit US, he brought 15 well-known Chinese entrepreneurs who communicated with American entrepreneurs for the exchange, the exchange involving various industries such as finance, Internet and real estate. Finally lay a good foundation for the further development of the CHN-US trade. The development of the two countries domestic industry led the domestic output, but also led to the development of other industries, and different industries have brought different output.Different industries have different effects on total output, so it’s necessary to analyze affect of two different domestic industries to total output, and the effect of different industries between the two countries on the total output. Finally provide some suggestions for improving trade according to conclusions.This paper first describes the current situation and trade problems between two countries.And the paper reveal that Chinese trade surplus is gradually increasing, and that Chines is exporting more capital-goods than labor-intensive goods, while US exports primary product 、capital and technology-intensive products to China always. Also the paper pointed out trade dependence between two countries is improving but presenting asymmetric and China is more dependent on US.After that, the paper uses input-output method and international input-output table authorizing 2001、2006、2011 CHN-US International Input-Output tables, analyzing the industry structure、 intermediate goods and final goods structure. Then estimates each multiplier effect within the region, as well as inter-regional spillover effects and contribution rate of GDP respectively. The results show that Chinese agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheryindustry, chemical manufacturing industry, metal manufacturing industry spillover effect is greater than in other industries, the US motor vehicle repair and sales industry, finance and insurance industry, leasing industry multiplier effect is greater than in other industries. Chines chemical manufacturing industry, electronic and optical equipment industry spillover effects is larger than other industries, and leasing industry spillover effects is gradually increasing. The same with China, US has greater spillover effects in these industries. In GDP contribution rate, the contribution rate of the multiplier effect is greater than the contribution of spillover effects,Chinese economics development is more dependent on US.Finally, for the empirical part of the conclusion, the paper proposes to improve the high value-added high-tech development, and strengthen leasig industry 、 air transport industry cooperation.