Demand Prediction Of Shaanxi’s Fruits Cold Chain Logistics

With the rapid development of fruit industry on large-scale and industrialization, and the increasing demand of fruits by consumers, cold chain logistics has become the key factor influenced fruit competitiveness and the indispensable component of transportation. Under the background of “One Belt and One Road”, Shaanxi province, the key bridge connects China with Central Asia and Europe, the vital link joins middle, eastern and western areas of China, who processes the superior geographical location, will provide a broad prospect for the development of fruit cold chain logistics. Therefore, it is of great significant on both theory and practice to predict the demand of fruit cold chain logistics, and to guide a sound development of such industry.However, the fruit cold chain logistics of Shaanxi province is still at the initial development stage, and its relevant theoretical research is limited. This paper does series studies, based on regional logistics theory,logistics demand forecasting theory and regression prediction theory, and solved the problems of singularized influencing factors, imperfect index system, and non-union regional logistics development characteristics when analysis correlational researches. Firstly, analyzes the current supply and demand situation of fruit cold chain logistics in Shaanxiprovince, expounds the development issues from perspectives of infrastructure, management system, talent development and logistics cost.Secondly, establishes the index system of fruit cold chain logistics preliminarily, utilizes grey correlation analysis method to screen the key factors mostly influenced the cold-chain logistics demand of Shaanxi province, and then constructs the Shaanxi fruit cold chain logistics demand forecasting index system. Finally, fits the curve of independent variables affected Shaanxi fruit cold chain logistics demand using the method of trend extrapolation, selects the optimal model, estimates the dependent variable by regression analysis method, moreover, analyzes the gap of Shaanxi fruit cold chain logistics according to the result of prediction.Based on cold chain logistics demand forecasting results and existing problems of shaanxi province, put forward to perfect the relevant system, cold chain industry to strengthen the construction of infrastructure, such as integration of cold chain logistics enterprise development Suggestions. As rational planning of the regional cold-chain logistics provides strong theoretical support, effectively avoid redundant construction of cold chain logistics infrastructure, so that the cold chain logistics supply and demand balance, to achieve the sustainable development of the fruit of cold chain logistics and the extension of industry chain and optimization of lay the foundation.