Study On Direct Rebound Effect Of China’s Urban Residents Life Energy Consumption

In recent years, global energy demand is rising. In 2013, the consumption of all other fuels has reached the highest levels except nuclear power and biofuels. In particular, China’s energy demand is also gradually rising. China’s energy demand accounted for 22% of global demand in 2013, which contributed 49% of the incremental demand of global energy consumption growth. The energy consumption of the household sector occupies an important proportion in China’s total energy consumption(for example, household energy consumption contributes 11% of China’s total energy consumption in 2012, 16% of increment).Now China is in a phase of accelerated urbanization development, the energy consumption of urban household plays an increasingly important role in the total residential energy consumption. So strengthening the estimation of urban residents rebound effect is very important to guarantee the implementation effect of China’s energy policy.In order to control the rapid rising of energy consumption, technology has been regarded as a very important way to achieve this purpose. But the implementation of this policy often did not achieve the desired goal, scholars believed this is due to rebound effect. Now the rebound effect can be mainly divided into three categories: direct, indirect and overall economic rebound effect. Among them, the direct rebound effect is the most direct energy efficiency indicators.In order to complete energy saving and emission reduction targets of China’s urban residents, this paper does empirical research about total energy consumption and electricity consumption of urban residents in China, as well as electricity consumption and carbon emissions caused by electricity of major cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Shenzhen. This paper analyzes the factors of affecting urban residents, focusing on the direct rebound effect of China’s urban residents life energy consumption, using a double logarithmic model, error correction model, scenario analysis, literature survey and other research methods, analyzing the main impact factors of affecting direct rebound effect of urban residents as well as calculation method for the situation in China. In this paper, the research results achieved in the following areas:On the basis of large-scale data collection, the paper measures the direct rebound effect of China’s urban residents life energy consumption. This paper collects 30 provinces data from 1996 to 2012 and applies double logarithmic models and error correction model, measuring short-term direct rebound effect is 67% and the long-term direct rebound effect is up to 92%.The long-term direct rebound effect is greater than the short-term direct rebound effect.Electricity is one of the main energy of China’s urban residents life energy. This paper collects data from 2003 to 2012, and applies double logarithmic models, measuring short-term direct rebound effect of Chinese urban residents electricity is 49% and the long-term direct rebound effect is up to 76%. The short-term residential electricity direct rebound effects of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Guangzhou are 32%,95%,45%,46% and 39%,and the long-term direct rebound effects are 71%,145%,75%,81%,74% respectively.Under the background of energy conservation in China, this paper studies the direct rebound of carbon emissions resulting from electricity consumption of urban residents in China. The results show the short-term direct rebound effect of Chinese urban residents electricity is 95% and the long-term direct rebound effect is up to 119%. The short-term direct rebound of carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Guangzhou are 90%,103%,100%,98% and 92%,and the long-term direct rebound effects are 103%,138%,121%,116%,108% respectively.This paper proposes policy recommendations on the result. In order to reduce the China’s residential energy consumption, only by increasing energy efficiency can not achieve the desired effect, some other policies need to be considered.