| Arid areas accounted for about 30% of our land, the main climatic characteristics are drought, rare rain,big evaporation. The dry areas of China are mainly distributed in the northwest region, Turpan is a typical arid area broken oasis, in recent years, Strengthened human activities, resources development and utilization of speed, have seriously impacted on the local natural environment. In particular, with the rapid development of industry, the local inherently fragile ecological environment is more fragile, environmental issues become increasingly prominent, such as desertification and salinization are increasingly serious, reduction in biodiversity is increasingly prominent. Man-Land Relationship has always been a hot topic of geographical research, and it has great significance to the ecological environment and social development in arid area to study the relationship between man and land in arid area.Humanity natural coupling system is the key to reflect whether man-land relationship of coordination. Turpan is not only an important transportation hub of the ancient Silk Road, but also the key areas of the new Silk Road Economic Zone Therefore, it is very important to study the coupling and dynamic evolution of human nature system in Turpan city. Based on the field investigation and research of the research area for three years(2012-2015 years), this paper studies on Humanity natural coupling system of Turpan, respectively, calculating the degree of Humanity natural coupling system of coupling and coupling coordination degree, getting the coupled coordination type of Humanities-Nature coupling system; it is analysis of turpan city human-nature driving factors of coupling system respectively from the aspects of humanities factor and natural factor, it is concluded that the key driving factors of the human nature coupling system in Turpan City; Using system dynamics to carry on the simulation about the Humanistic system of each subsystem and the natural system of each subsystem and Humanities-Nature coupling system, and then coming up with reasonable measures of the development of Turpan city.The main results of this paper are as follows:1 It is concluded that the human system and natural system development scores, by calculating the human system and natural system and human nature coupled system development scores,then by calculating the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree between the model of coupled human and natural systems, to obtain the spit between Turpan City human system and natural system coupling and coordination of human and natural system coupling degree. The results show that the development of the humanities system is higher than that of the natural system, and the coupling degree between humanity and nature is relatively low. In the period of 2000-2013, the coupling coordination degree between the humanities system and the natural system is below 0.32, and the development type belongs to the type of disorder.2 Through analyzing principal component, a total of 34 indicators in the humanities and natural systems reduce the dimension, I selected the 12 factors,which have larger correlation with human and natural coupling system. Calculating the correlation coefficient between the 12 factors and human nature of the coupling system by using the method of grey correlation analysis, and made the association of the sort, getting the main driving factors of Humanity natural coupling system. In the human system, population, agriculture population and the urban registered unemployment rate are with a high degree of association between Humanity natural coupling system, and in the natural system, water resources, solid waste utilization rate and treatment rate of domestic sewage are with a high degree of association between Humanity natural coupling system. It suggests that population, agricultural population, the urban registered unemployment rate, water, solid waste utilization and sewage rate are the main driving factors in Humanity natural coupling system.3 I used system dynamics to construct the conceptual model of Humanity natural coupling system, and ran parts of the model combing historical data, simulating the development of each system during the year 2013-2030,from the results of the simulation, it can be seen that the development of population subsystem, economic subsystem are steady, and the level of development of social system and environmental system has declined, especially in the development of natural environment was falling too quick. By 2030, the population reached more than 80 million, the index of the natural environment decline to 0.0031. So We must protect the enviroment. |
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