Financial Risk Early Warning Of Listed Logistics Companies Based On Control Charts

The logistics industry in today’s competitive environment is increasingly intense, the company need to optimize resources, evaluation resonablely on the uncertain financial risk. Most potential crisis measurable if can measure mostly concentrated reflection on the financial data. For pursuit of the useful information, the parties of the interests forecast development prospects and improve operation efficiency use a variety of measures to financial ratios. This concept is widely applied, investors focused on the results to evaluate the quality of the company’s financial and adjust the investment plan. It is helpful for managers to take appropriate control measures in advance. Managers use warning conclusion to take appropriate control measures in advance. At the same time, it provides the management basis for the regulators.Based on the theory of statistical process control SPC, we using control chart method to forecast the logistics financial risk of listed companies, to determine whether there is a crisis and where the crisis come from and the severity of the crisis. The idea of this paper is divided into three parts: First, analyze samples of financial indicators, to find the core element of the formation of financial risk. Secondly, using a comprehensive index that synthesis from ratio of core, building EMWA control chart model to empirical research. Thirdly, analysis the ratio of core and constructs the X-Rs control chart, then test of two kinds of model prediction accuracy.Because of the analysis of the financial indicators, the logistics industry listed companies can establish the early warning model of control chart. The results of predicts has high accuracy and intuitive, that it could provides experience on the application of control chart on all kinds of industry.