| The accuracy requirements of civil aviation meteorological Security become higher as the civil aviation develops rapidly, it is necessary to recommend the numerical model and data assimilation method into the research of civil aviation meteorology. As the new generation of numerical model, WRF model(The Weather Research And Forecasting Model) has become ultimate tool in the operation and research. The WRFDA for 3D-Var(Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation), an independent data assimilation system based on the plane of WRF model, support users with the methods of observation data process and the algorithms to calculate background error statistics. The difference between model initial condition and the real atmosphere station can be reduced by assimilate different types of observation data in the specific area.Take the heavy precipitation weather as the research object in this paper. First, used WRF model to do sensitivity test by simulating different microphysical process scheme, boundary layer scheme or horizontal resolution, and acquired the optimal parameterization scheme by the Threat Score method and performance test. Second, used the WRFDA for 3D-Var to assimilate observational data, such as data from automatic stations and aviation routine weather forecast message data(METAR), and found it better while compared the result with the reality. Finally, in order to provide accurate and effective meteorological information for the operation of aircraft, it analyzed the result of the best simulation with some diagnostic Variables to find out the development, changes, distribution and strength of the precipitation over time. |
