Vulnerability Analysis Of Storm Flood Disasters In Shennongjia Forest Region

Under the background of global warming,meteorological disasters have attracted more and more attentions in recent years.As one of the most typical meteorological disasters,rainstorm waterlogging has seriously affected people's daily life.Therefore,how to reduce flood disaster is particularly important in disaster management.As the theoretical basis of disaster prevention and reduction,vulnerability is the main part of disaster study.Supported by the key project of National Science and Technology Support Program for China "Study and Demonstration on Comprehensive Information System of Disaster Prevention and Reduction for Village and Small Town",here a lot of researches on vulnerability of flood disaster with Shennongjia forest as an example have been done.According to formation mechanism of flood disaster,rainstorm waterlogging can be viewed as the process from extreme rainfall to flood.With the topic of vulnerability for flood disaster,the research findings are as follow:The construction of regression model between rainfall and water level.Firstly the data of rainfall and water level are selected in Qingyang River.Next,based on the assumption of the antecedent precipitation,the rainfall is calculated in seven different forms.Then according to the theory of wavelet analysis,the raw data is processed to eliminate the error.Finally,the equation of polynomial regression is established between calculated rainfall and water level in Qingyang River,Songbaizhen.The construction of flood submergence model.Based on flood submergence,the grid-based flood disaster is emulated by data of water level.Firstly,the water level of Songbaizhen is collected from hydrological observation stations.Next,raster graphic of water level elevation is drawn by the TIN.Then distribution map of flood disaster is drawn by overlapping raster graphic of water level with DEM and socioeconomic gird.Finally,the model is proven reasonable according to the comparison between theory and practice.The construction of vulnerability analysis model.The evaluation and analysis of influence factors for vulnerability is the major parts of this model.Firstly,we should establish the frame with the conception of vulnerability.Next,the gird-based evaluation of vulnerability is accomplished by SE-DEA model for the distribution of vulnerability in Songbaizhen.Finally,in order to get the function between vulnerability and factors,the influence factors of gird-based vulnerability is analyzed by DEA-Tobit model.Based on the combination of GIS and mathematical models,this paper analyzes the vulnerability of flood disaster in Songbaizhen to provide scientific basis and reasonable reference for disaster prevention and reduction.